Acute food insecurity is expected to deteriorate through at least May 2025 across much of Somalia due to the expected extremely poor October to December 2024 deyr rainfall amid limited recovery from the 2020 to 2023 historic drought. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to be widespread across most of the country by February 2025, with the areas of highest concern including settlements hosting internally displaced persons (IDP) and parts of agropastoral Bay and Bakool regions. The forecasted below-average April to June gu rains will provide only marginal seasonal improvements following a severe January to March jilaal dry season. If gu rains are significantly below average, delayed, or fail, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will spread and food assistance needs will increase sharply by mid-2025. Many IDP settlements are expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through May due to poor harvests, limited crop zakat, increasing staple food prices, heightened competition for scarce employment opportunities, weak social support networks, and eroded coping capacities following years of compounding weather and conflict shocks.
The ongoing October to Decemberdeyrrains have been extremely poor, marked by a delayed start and only a few rainfall days across much of the country. Large areas of southern and central Somalia have received just 30 to 45 percent of average cumulative rainfall during the first two months of the deyr season. Meanwhile, vegetation conditions have deteriorated significantly compared to early October, with the largest negative anomalies in Bay and the Shabelle regions. In the areas with the worst rainfall deficits, 2024 deyr cultivation has reportedly halted. Cumulative deyr rainfall will most likely be well below average, priming Somalia for an extremely harsh January to March jilaal dry season. While La Niña conditions are expected to be short lived in late 2024/early 2025, the waning La Niña is also expected to drive below-average April to June gu rains. The forecasted below-average gu season is expected to provide only marginal improvements in crop production and pasture conditions.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in southern agropastoral areas, particularly in the Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones in November. Significantly below-average food stocks from the 2024 gu season coupled with the delayed start of deyr cultivation continue to constrain access to food and income sources. However, second season harvests from riverine areas continued to support a seasonal decline in maize prices in October by 5 to 15 percent compared to September 2024; prices overall remain around 20 percent below the five-year average. Production prospects are low for the deyr season and agriculture labor opportunities are atypically limited; however, some households will continue to access income through agricultural labor through January. This is likely to temporarily enhance household access to food and enable repayment of loans used to purchase food or agricultural inputs.
In northwestern agropastoral areas, the ongoing gu/karan harvest in Togdheer and Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zones is supporting a marginal increase in access to food and income; however, the harvest is significantly below average limiting the scale to which food stocks support household food consumption. Most households prematurely harvested crops prior to maturation for fodder sales or for feeding their livestock rather than for their own consumption due to the dry and erratic rainfall during critical growth periods. Medium levels of goat kidding and increased milk availability in November are also supporting some improvement in food and income access. However, white sorghum prices in Hargeysa remain extremely high (11,000 SLS/kg in October), and imported rice prices also remain elevated. Poor households are facing atypically low purchasing power in November, limiting household access to food. As a result, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand due to the atypically early exhaustion of karan food stocks.
The northern and central pastoral areas are expected to face below-average access to food and income due to low livestock holdings and low livestock productivity associated with the poor deyr rainfall. The purchasing capacity of poor households has declined due to reduced employment opportunities combined with the high cost of imported food, especially rice and wheat flour. The below-average deyr rainfall season is likely to severely impact the central Addun Pastoral and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones as these households were most severely impacted by the historic 2020 to 2023 drought. Normal migration opportunities to access pasture and water are limited due to ongoing local conflict, insecurity, and inter-clan tensions. Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in the worst drought-affected areas through early 2025 and will expand to most northern and central pastoral areas starting in February, with the number of households facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) anticipated to increase through May 2025.
Riverine areas in southern Somalia are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through May 2025 as recovery from the 2023 and 2024 floods continues. The flooding caused severe damage to irrigation infrastructure, limited access to agricultural inputs, and drove below-average labor opportunities. However, above-average gu off-season harvests helped to partially mitigate the production deficits seen in the gu main harvest, which contributed to a decline in maize prices in October. This, combined with income from crop sales and labor activities, has supported improved access to food and income relative to recent periods of severe flooding. While river water levels and flood risk remained medium to high through most of November at both the Dollow (Juba River) and Beletweyne (Shabelle River) stations, by the end of the month, water levels at these stations had receded considerably.
