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Overview
Despite large-scale humanitarian response providing reprieve in Somalia’s food crisis, the latest data shows that 3.7 million people, or 22 percent of the population, are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and Phase 4 (Emergency). The IPC Acute Food Insecurity classification is based on household surveys and field assessments conducted in June and July 2023 and subsequent analysis in August 2023.
The key drivers of acute food insecurity in Somalia include the combined effects of below-average and poorly distributed rainfall, flooding, the extended impact of multi-season drought in pastoral areas, limited household access to food due to income constraints and elevated food prices, continued insecurity and, and conflict in many parts of central and southern Somalia and Lasaanod (Sool), and low coverage of humanitarian assistance.
Available forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of El Nino and aboveaverage rainfall during the 2023 Deyr (October-December) season across most of the country, with likely adverse impact on livelihoods, food security and nutrition outcomes, mainly in riverine areas.
Humanitarian assistance has continued to play a critical role in preventing worse food security and nutrition outcomes in many areas. This assistance is expected to decline further between October and December 2023 if additional funding is not secured. The analysis findings for acute malnutrition show that the situation has generally improved compared to the same season in 2022.
Of the 46 population groups included in the analysis, a Critical situation (IPC AMN Phase 4) was observed in 13 population groups. Twenty-two population groups were also classified in Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3). In contrast, ten other population groups were classified in Alert situation (IPC AMN Phase 2), and in just one population group, the situation was classified as Acceptable (IPC AMN Phase 1).
It is estimated that approximately 1.5 million children under the age of five years face acute malnutrition between August 2023 and July 2024, including 330,630 who are likely to be severely malnourished. The primary drivers include limited access to health and nutrition services, as a result, in part, of limited humanitarian funds, as well as acute food insecurity and high morbidity in many areas.
Despite the relative improvement in the nutrition outcomes in Somalia, the prevalence of acute malnutrition remains high, with the GAM rates above 15% in many analysis areas. The improvement over previous years is due to improved harvest in the Gu season, better rainfall performance in the agropastoral areas and improved livestock body conditions, increasing sale prices for animals and improving household income.
The impact of the multi-year drought continues to limit food availability in pastoral and agropastoral areas where milk availability remains limited, as calving and kidding are expected from September. Some areas, such as the northwest region, experienced moderate price increases due to the ongoing depreciation of the local currency (SLS), reducing the purchasing power at the household level and compromising household access to food due to income constraints and elevated food prices.
Low coverage of humanitarian assistance and further expected scale-down in the projection period increase nutrition and food insecurity risks. These food consumption factors have contributed to inadequate food intake and consumption of low-diversified diets that led to the high prevalence of acute malnutrition and the sustained critical level of acute malnutrition observed in children less than five years of age.