Attachments
Overview
Nearly 3.4 million people or 17 percent of Somalia’s population are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) driven by floods, conflict, and poor rainfall. This includes 2.9 million people (15 percent) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and around 442,000 (2 percent) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Malnutrition analysis also indicates that 1.7 million children aged 6–59 months suffering from acute malnutrition through December 2025.
Poor rainfall has led to low crop yields and rapid depletion of pasture and water sources, while localised flooding has damaged food crops and displaced riverine communities. Conflict and insecurity in central and southern Somalia, as well as parts of the northern regions, have continued to displace communities, disrupt farming and livestock livelihood activities as well as restrict market access.
Compared to the same period last year, when 4 million people were in IPC Phase 3 or above due to prolonged drought, the current figure reflects a 15 percent reduction in acute food insecurity. This improvement is largely due to better rainfall over earlier seasons, which has supported livelihoods, and ongoing humanitarian assistance, though at a lower level than before.
Between April and June 2025, Gu season rainfall is expected to be below average. Combined with a likelihood of high food prices, conflict, insecurity, and further localised flooding, food insecurity is projected to deepen, with 4.4 million people (23 percent of the population) expected to be in IPC Phase 3 or above.
An estimated 1.7 million children aged 6–59 months are suffering from or expected to suffer from acute malnutrition and require urgent treatment between January and December 2025 (total burden). This includes approximately 466,000 cases of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 1.2 million cases of Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM). Around 64 percent of the total burden is concentrated in southern Somalia. Compared to the same period last year, the projected burden reflects a 4 percent increase in Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) and a 9 percent rise in SAM.
Between April and June 2025, a period associated with increased disease outbreaks and reduced food access, acute malnutrition is expected to worsen. In ten areas, including West Golis, Northern Inland Pastoral (Northwest and Northeast), Hawd Pastoral (Northwest, Northeast, and Central), East Golis, Garowe IDPs, Shabelle Agropastoral, and Bakool Southern Inland Pastoral (Elberde), conditions are likely to deteriorate.
In 31 other areas, malnutrition is expected to worsen but remain within the same IPC Phase. This includes ten locations in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical): Bossaso IDPs, Galkacyo IDPs, Beletweyne Rural, Shabelle Riverine, Mogadishu IDPs, Bay Agropastoral, Juba Cattle Pastoral, Juba Riverine, Buloburte, and Mataban (Hiran). The remaining areas will likely stay within IPC AMN Phase 3 and 4.
The deterioration is mainly driven by increased childhood illnesses during the Gu season, poor feeding and care practices, and reduced access to safe water and sanitation. Flooded roads are expected to hinder humanitarian assistance, while reduced funding will likely limit mobile outreach efforts.