Between July and September 2021, over 2.2 million people experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This figure is projected to drastically increase to 3.5 million between October and December 2021, and include poor rural, urban and displaced populations across Somalia. The projection is based on the assumed absence of humanitarian assistance. Moreover, approximately 1.2 million children under the age of five are likely to be acutely malnourished through July 2022, including nearly 213 400 likely severely malnourished
The key drivers of acute food insecurity in Somalia include the combined effects of poor and erratic rainfall distribution, flooding and conflict. Population displacements due to armed conflict and political tensions, drought and lack of livelihoods are expected to continue through late 2021, further exacerbating food insecurity in many areas. Nutrition specific drivers include an increase in morbidity, further decline in milk availability and access, declining household cereal food stocks and a likely increase in cereal prices.
Despite minimal damage in early to mid-2021, desert locusts will continue to pose a serious risk to both pasture availability and crop production across Somalia. Available forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of below-average rainfall during the 2021 Deyr (October-December) season across most of the country, which would adversely affect food security and nutrition outcomes.