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OVERVIEW
More than 1.5 million people in Somalia are expected to be severely food insecure in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse through June 2019, driven by the impacts of below-average Deyr seasonal rainfall, large-scale destitution and displacement fuelled by the 2016/2017 drought and protracted conflict.
In addition, 903,100 children under the age of five are likely to be acutely malnourished in 2019, according to findings from the post-Deyr seasonal assessment conducted in November and December 2018. Pastoral populations face depleted rangeland resources and limited saleable animals, while agropastoral households harvested below-average Deyr agricultural production. As of January 2019, sustained and large-scale humanitarian assistance had prevented worse food security conditions in many areas.
The forecast average Gu (April to June 2019) rains and mostly favourable market conditions are expected to mitigate more severe deterioration in food security conditions through mid-2019.
Overall, food security has continued to improve throughout Somalia since mid 2018. Most northern and central livelihood zones are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions, while southern livelihood zones are Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In October, humanitarian assistance continued to prevent worse conditions in Guban Pastoral and northwestern Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones, where Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) conditions persist, respectively. Northwest Agropastoral and most IDP settlements are also in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).