Somalia

Somalia fragile state analysis: Policy options for the government of Canada

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Analysis
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Executive Summary: Despite billions in aid and a series of international interventions, Somalia has ranked as the world’s most fragile state for much of the past decade. This raises the question as to what is driving fragility within the country and why aid is seemingly ineffective in this context. This report is designed to provide the Government of Canada (GC) with an analytical overview of the key drivers of fragility in Somalia and proposes targeted initiatives where development aid is more likely to be effective. The Authority, Legitimacy, Capacity (ALC) model developed by Carment et al. provides the theoretical framework through which the issues in Somalia are analysed. Specifically, it reveals that weak governance, weak security institutions and slow economic growth are the key drivers behind fragility and undermine ALC. Three policy recommendations are proposed that target these drivers and address components of ALC: training of the Somali National Army (SNA), support for the federalization process, and agricultural aid.