Gu season crop performance in Southern, Central, and Northern Somalia near average
- Food security is expected to deteriorate during the April-June period, the peak lean season for households which rely on crop production (Figure 1). However, food insecurity is not expected to reach 2011 levels and improvements are expected following the July/August Gu harvest.
- Moderate rainfall in Lower and Middle Shabelle, Bay, and Bakool regions has supported crop germination and establishment. Near average Gu-season production is expected if rains continue over the coming months, though cricket outbreaks, flooding, and reduced area planted in Lower Shabelle could reduce the overall, national harvests.
- Despite the overall nutrition situation improvement since July/August 2011, levels of acute malnutrition and mortality remain above emergency thresholds in southern Somalia. The prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) in rural areas of the south ranges between 20 and 30 percent with the exceptions of Bay region and the Juba Riverine livelihood zone, where the GAM prevalence likely remains above 30 percent. Levels of acute malnutrition have improved more significantly in Mogadishu.
- Late May and June rain performances will still determine the overall size of Gu crop production in southern Somalia.