Very poor Deyr harvest likely in agropastoral areas of Hiraan, Togdheer, and Lower Shabelle
Preliminary findings from the post-Deyr assessment indicate food security has improved marginally for many pastoralists due to seasonally higher milk availability. Food security is expected to improve for agricultural and agropastoral households in January with the Deyr harvest. In both areas, though, improvements will be short-lived and many households will face food consumption through mid-2018. In a worst-case scenario of an extended absence of assistance, Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains possible, and continued large-scale assistance is needed throughout 2018 to protect lives and livelihoods.
October to December Deyr rainfall was below average and erratically distributed, and total national production is estimated at 20-30 percent below average. Production is expected to be well below average in agropastoral areas of Hiraan and Togdheer, and in Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone of Lower Shabelle. Conversely, production is expected to be relatively better than previously projected in Bay, Bakool, and parts of Lower and Middle Shabelle and marginal improvement to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is now expected through May.
Food security outcomes are expected to be slightly better than previously projected in Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Nugal, northern Mudug, and Sool. In these areas, livestock body conditions have seasonally improved and are normal. Poor households are consuming milk currently and are expected to sell a few livestock through May to support cereal purchases. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is now expected through May in these areas.
There is increased concern for poor households in agropastoral areas of Hiraan, Togdheer, and Lower Shabelle. Many poor households will not harvest crops in January and some have moved to IDP camps to access assistance. Concern is also increasing for pastoralists in Guban Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones. In these areas, livestock are in very poor condition and pastoralists will be unable to sell livestock during the outlook period. In the absence of assistance, some households in the above-mentioned areas could exhaust their capacity to cope and be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).