Late, below-average gu rains lead to increasingly widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes
The start of the April to June gu rainfall season was either delayed, significantly below average, or poorly distributed across Somalia. As this follows a below-average deyr season in late 2020 and a harsh dry season in early 2021, drought was prevalent in mid-April, leading to water scarcity and poor crop and livestock production conditions. Further, rainfall is forecast to subside from mid-May into June.
Due to poor rainfall, the July harvests and seasonal livestock production will be below average. Gu crop development is delayed in several northwestern and southern agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones, and yield losses are likely due to the shortened growing period. In northern and central pastoral areas, there are reports of atypical livestock migration and deaths. While mid-season rainfall will partially alleviate water and pasture scarcity, livestock health, value, and reproduction will not fully recover before the dry season. Many poor households will be unable to meet their minimum food needs due to reductions in agricultural labor income, own-produced food stocks, livestock saleability and reproduction, and milk availability.
Rural food insecurity is expected to worsen through September, while food insecurity will also remain high among displaced and urban populations. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will become increasingly widespread. Areas of highest concern include Addun Pastoral, Northern Inland Pastoral, Coastal Deeh Pastoral, and Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral, where some households are experiencing large food consumption gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4).