Deyr rainfall expected to sustain current outcomes, except in some pastoral areas
Food security has continued to improve throughout Somalia since the 2018 Gu. Most northern and central livelihood zones are Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while southern livelihood zones are Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In October, humanitarian assistance continued to prevent worse outcomes in Guban Pastoral and northwestern Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) livelihood zones, where Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes persist, respectively. Northwest Agropastoral and most IDP settlements are also in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Contrary to earlier forecasts, Deyr seasonal rainfall is now expected to be below-average despite the development of a weak El Niño. Overall, favorable soil moisture is anticipated to prevent large declines in Deyr crop production and rangeland resources, and current outcomes are likely to be sustained in most livelihood zones through May 2019. In Addun Pastoral, Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing, and northeastern NIP livelihood zones, however, deterioration in pasture and water resources is likely to lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the 2019 pastoral lean season.
In the absence of food assistance, deterioration to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone and to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in northwestern NIP livelihood zone is likely. Herd sizes remain significantly below baseline in these zones and poor households have few saleable animals to purchase food. Significant improvements will not occur until after the next cohort of births in May. Other areas of greatest concern include IDP settlements, which will sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4).