Above-average rainfall throughout 2018 expected to drive improvements in food security
Food security has improved significantly in many of the areas worstaffected by the 2016/17 drought, as a result of large-scale humanitarian assistance and improvements in seasonal performance. Most areas of the country are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2), though Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes exist in some areas and among IDP populations. Between July and September, in the absence of continued humanitarian assistance, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely in riverine livelihood zones and northern and central Somalia. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is likely in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone.
Food security is expected to improve between October and January, driven by seasonal improvements, and most areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), though some populations throughout Somalia will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. Areas of greatest concern are IDP settlements, most of which will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, where poor households have very few saleable animals to purchase food and will likely remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).
April to June Gu rainfall started earlier than normal and was significantly above average. Below-average Gu production in July is likely in riverine areas where floods caused substantial crop losses, though above-average production is likely in rainfed areas. Overall the harvest in July is expected to be average. Flooding increased recession cultivation opportunities and the September off-season Gu harvest is expected to be above average.
There is an elevated likelihood of an El Niño event occurring in late 2018, driving above-average rainfall during the October to December Deyr season. Deyr rainfall is expected to support average production and normal livestock births and productivity in most areas, though flooding will likely cause crop losses in riverine and lowland areas.