Population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and higher likely to increase through December
The population in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) will likely increase slightly through December 201. The most food insecure people will be in riverine areas of Middle Shabelle Region due to flooding and agropastoral areas in Awdal, Hiraan , and Middle Juba Regions due to erratic April to June Gu rainfall.
The Gu rains ended early in May instead of June, and they were erratically distributed across time . This will likely lead to a well below average harvest in agropastoral areas in the Northwest, Hiraan, and Middle Juba . Agropastoral households currently have no cereal stocks, and they are expected to fall into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the extended July to November lean season.
Food security outcomes in most pastoral livelihood zones, especially in Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in the North and Southern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in the South, are likely to continue improving.
Herd s are larger than they have been in several years, and livestock production and values are increasing. An increasing number of poor households are likely to be in None (IPC Phas e 1) from July through December .
Food security outcomes in riverine areas are likely to deteriorate from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Middle Shabelle due to severe river floods along the Shabelle River , which prevented cropping , limited humanitarian access , and limited trade, leading to continued high food prices and very low food access .