ReliefWeb

The population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and higher will continue to increase through December

Key Messages

• The population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and higher will likely reach one million people by December 2014. Most of the food insecure will be in agropastoral areas and urban areas in southern Somalia. Intensified conflict, restricted trade, and a below harvest have led to high prices and reduced availability of labor opportunities since March, increasing food insecurity in these areas.

• Food security outcomes in some pastoral livelihood zones in the Northeast, the Northwest, and the central regions will likely deteriorate despite these areas remaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2). High debts, reduced livestock production, and poor body conditions will become more prevalent between July and September as the availability of pasture and water declines during the dry season.

• Urban centers including Buloburte and Jalalaqsi in Hiraan, Qoryoley and Marka in Lower Shabelle, Xudur, Wajid, and Elbarde in Bakool, and Luuq and Garbaharrey in Gedo have had severely restricted trade just as stocks from previous seasons are being drawn down. Food security will continue to deteriorate if trade restrictions persist.

• Many areas of Somalia are likely to see deteriorating food security, especially between now and the start of the Deyr rains in October. Also, the acutely food insecure population will increase. Below average access to income and food sources will be exacerbated by reduced supplies from trade and the steep increase of staple food prices. However, despite this significant deterioration, no area of Somalia is likely to enter Famine (IPC Phase 5) between now and December.