Attachments
Key Messages
- Widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected from February to May 2026, with an increasing share of the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse through the end of the jilaal dry season in March. Pockets of households most impacted by displacement and consecutive poor rainfall seasons are expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Crop failures, skyrocketing food and water prices, and insecurity have left households facing widening food consumption deficits. Acute malnutrition will continue to deteriorate in the absence of a large scale-up of food assistance. Agricultural labor opportunities and rangeland conditions will slowly improve with the anticipated average gu rains starting in April but will be insufficient to impact area-level outcomes by May.
- From June to September, outcomes will be mixed. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will persist in central and northern pastoral areas due to unsustainably low herd sizes and low milk availability. Despite near-average gu harvests and improving livestock values, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected where households will have substantial debts or where livestock losses were greatest. Improvements to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected in areas that had better livestock migration options or where agricultural labor opportunities are more plentiful.
- Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will persist in multiple internally displaced persons (IDP) settlements through September due to limited livelihood options, high food prices, and eroded coping capacities. Planned assistance distributions will only be sufficient to mitigate worse acute food insecurity outcomes in a few settlements in February and in Dhuusamarreeb through May.
- Humanitarian food assistance needs will remain extremely high throughout the projection period, peaking between February and April, when an estimated 6.0-6.99 million people will require assistance. The areas of highest concern include IDP settlements, Bay and Bakool agropastoral areas, and central, northern, and Juba Cattle pastoral livelihood zones.