Consecutive seasons of below-average rainfall likely to lead to widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes
• In February, the recent below-average deyr harvest, marginal seasonal improvements in livestock production, and sustained humanitarian food assistance are supporting widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. Although food assistance is mitigating the magnitude of the acutely food insecure population, available evidence indicates at least 1.6 million people across Somalia still have food consumption gaps or are using negative coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4).
• Driven by waning La Niña conditions, a below-average gu rainfall season is forecast from April to June. A second consecutive season of belowaverage rainfall, coupled with the ongoing desert locust upsurge, is anticipated to lead to progressively widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September. Additionally, economic recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic is occurring gradually and several key sources of income, including livestock exports, remain below normal levels. An estimated 2.7 million people are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4). This projection does not take planned humanitarian food assistance into account due to limited information on confirmed funding and district-level targeting.
• In agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones, most poor households will have below-normal food stocks and reduced agricultural labor income from the below-average 2020 deyr harvest and the anticipated, belowaverage 2021 gu harvest. In northern and central pastoral livelihood zones, most poor households are still struggling to recover their livestock holdings, which will continue to limit their food and income from livestock and milk production.
Due to the tight cereal supply, rising staple food prices are expected to simultaneously place pressure on rural and urban households’ purchasing power through at least July. Displaced and poor urban households are particularly sensitive to price shocks, with limited coping capacity. Northern Inland Pastoral and Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zones are among the areas of high concern, where some households became destitute from the impacts of Cyclone Gati.