Attachments
Key Messages
- Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes with households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are expected from October to January 2026, driven by consecutivebelow-average rainy seasons in central and northern areas, and likely La Niña-induced rainfall deficits during the October-December deyr. In pastoral areas, reduced pasture and atypically low milk production will likely constrain household purchasing capacity. In agropastoral and riverine areas, anticipated below-average deyr harvests, limited agricultural labor, and depleted food stocks will increase market dependence amid rising food prices.
- **From February to May, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to expand.**Addun Pastoral and Bay/Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones are expected to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) by February 2026. Projected below-average deyr harvests will likely limit agricultural labor income and food stocks, while the atypically dry January-March jilaal dry season will further deteriorate livestock body conditions and milk availability.
- Humanitarian food assistance needs are expected to increase through the projection period, with 5.0-5.99 million people in need from February to April. The areas of highest concern include IDP settlements; southern agropastoral areas in Bay and Bakool; and central and northern pastoral areas.
- Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in several internally displaced persons (IDP) settlements through May. IDPs are heavily reliant on humanitarian food assistance; however, the humanitarian response has been undermined by funding cuts, likely reaching only 5-10 percent of the population in need in November and December. Humanitarian assistance from January-May 2026 has not been secured but is expected to continue at similar reduced levels.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 17, 2025.