Food security to deteriorate in the South due to intensified conflict
In agropastoral areas in the South that had a very limited January/February Deyr harvest, food security will remain at or deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the April to June lean season.
In parts of Bakool and Hiraan, the poorest households will move into Emergency (IPC Phase 4) due to more limited trade, which decreases economic activity.
In the North, food security is likely to improve through September as a result of increased livestock production and increased livestock prices due demand for Ramadan in June/July and the Hajj in late September. With average to below-average rainfall forecast for this season, pasture and water availability will increase, supporting recovery of livestock body conditions from a warmer and longer than usual January to March Jilaal dry season.
In the riverine livelihood zones in Middle and Lower Juba, food security will deteriorate between now and June as a result of reduced cereal availability from the well below-average off-season harvest in March and reduced agricultural labor income due to likely river flooding in April/May that will reduce demand for labor for land preparation, planting, and weeding.