Somalia Food Security Outlook April to September 2011

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The body of the report contains the most recent Food Security and Nutriton Analysis Unit (FSNAU)/IPC map for the January ‐June 2011 period (Figure 1) as well as FEWS NET Outlook maps for the April‐June 2011 and July‐August periods (Figures 2 and 3). The FSNAU map was developed in January 2011 and reflects consensus analysis from the 2011 post‐deyr seasonal assessment. The FEWS NET maps build on this analysis, considering recent observations and additional assumptions related to future shocks and humanitarian assistance.

• Food insecurity nationwide in April (Figure 2) is worse than anticipated in January 2011 (Figure 1), particularly in pastoral areas of north, southern and central Somalia, due to the extended delay in the start of the Gu rains.

• Given extreme limitations on humanitarian access and continued active conflict, particularly in southern Somalia, rural households depend more than usual on own‐production of cereals and livestock products, which is contingent upon rainfall.

• The most likely assumptions regarding rainfall made in January still hold (roughly 80 percent of average). However, by mid‐season, the worst case assumption—totals as little as 50 percent of average—are becoming increasingly likely.

• The key areas in need of life‐saving emergency assistance are: pastoral areas of Central, Nugal Valley and Sool Plateau, and agropastoral and marginal cropping areas of southern Somalia, notably lower Juba and Hiran.