- Increased and renewed conflict, mainly in Mogadishu and the central regions, and ongoing civilian displacement continue to fuel a humanitarian crisis. Increasing staple cereal prices, market instability, and the interruption of trade flows are expected to significantly increase in these areas and humanitarian access remains limited. As a result, IDPs and the urban poor in these areas remain extremely food insecure.
- In the most likely scenario, food security is expected to improve in many pastoral parts of the country between April and September, as good rainfall will lead to improvements in pasture and water availability, increased milk production, kidding, and calving. However, parts of central regions, IDPs in Afgoye, and parts of Soal plateau will remain in crises.
- For farmers in the south, food insecurity will persist through June, the peak lean season in this area. However, as of July, improvements in these cropping areas are expected to follow an average to above-average crop harvest. Some improvements are also expected in the Coastal Deeh and Cowpea belt livelihood zones and Togdheer agropastoral areas between July and September. In the Northern region, Awdal and Gabiley districts of Northwest food security will remain stable assuming normal gu rains.