Food security to deteriorate in the South due to intensified conflict
Recently intensified conflict in the Shabelle Valley will likely result in reduced availability of agricultural labor opportunities followed by a below average Gu harvest in June/July. With decreased local supply, local cereal prices will likely increase over the coming months. Food security is likely to deteriorate as poor households’ food access declines, reaching Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from July to September 2014.
Outside of Lower and Middle Shabelle, pastoral and agropastoral areas in the South are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Livestock values and sales are expected to increase as exports for Ramadan and the Hajj start. While affected by conflict, in these areas it will likely be less disruptive both to agricultural production and to trade than in the Shabelle Valley.
Food security outcomes in pastoral livelihood zones, specifically in Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in the North and Southern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in the South are likely to continue improving. Herd sizes area above their levels from the 2007-2008 livelihood baselines, and livestock production and values are increasing. Poor households are likely to enter Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from July through at least September.