Highlights
FSAU will conduct a Post Gu Food, Nutrition and Livelihood Security Assessment with partners July 5-25. Preliminary results will be available in early August (page 4).
Civil Insecurity: Increasing tensions in Northern Gedo, Bay and Bakool continue to affect water and pasture accessibility and disrupt ongoing agricultural activities. The lack of security is also limiting humanitarian access to these areas. This week's relocation of the Federal Transitional Government to Somalia is seen as a positive step towards enhancing the overall stability of livelihoods.
Climate: The Gu rains (March - May 2005) so far were evenly distributed and significantly above normal in most of the Northern, Central, and Juba pastoral areas. On the other hand, key cropping areas in the south, in particular Lower Shabelle, rains were erratic, below normal and unevenly distributed (page 2). Markets: Both the Somali and Somaliland Shilling continue to remain stable in most of the main markets throughout the region. Currencies traded at an average of 15,390 Ssh/US$ and 6,200 SLSH/US$ in May. Import commodity prices also remained fairly stable in May except for petrol prices which show an increasing trend over the past four months in the Sorghum Belt, Shabelle, and Juba Regions (page 2).
Nutrition: Levels of global acute malnutrition in Sool Plateau are reported to be 10-14.9% (WFH z scores), which is within the usual range. Recovery in the overall food security and continued humanitarian interventions are explanatory factors. In Galgadud and Gedo, the levels of global acute malnutrition (above 20% WFH z scores) are significantly above the usual range. Levels of global acute malnutrition in Hobyo and Bakool are also above the usual range (page 2).
Agriculture: Farmlands along the Juba River began to flood in mid-May from southern Gedo all the way down to Jamaame flooding farmlands up to 5-10 km on both sides of the river and destroying an estimated 80-90% of the maize crops. Across the Shabelle Valley the Gu rains so far were ineffective for crop production, thus prospects for rainfed maize are poor. Farmers along the river increased gravity and pump irrigation taking advantage of high river levels which in turn prevented flooding. Maize prices have increased significantly in both Juba and Shabelle Region due to the very poor production in the last Deyr season, and the anticipated poor maize production of this Gu season. Cereal Balance Sheet Projections for 2005/06 indicate no overall cereal supply gap, even assuming a below normal cereal production in the south (page 3).
Livestock: Above normal Gu rains in the north and central pastoral areas is continuing to promote improvements in livestock conditions and production. Berkeds and shallow wells are full, pastures are regenerating, and livestock calving and kidding rates are high. Some pastoral areas in the south and central regions received inadequate rainfall this Gu season, however the successful Deyr rains have ensured adequate water and pasture and overall livestock conditions are reported to be good (page 3).
Emerging Regional Issues: (page 4)
- Severe flooding in Lower and Middle Juba, which began in mid-May due to heavy rains in Ethiopia, is worsening the Humanitarian Emergency among the Juba riverine communities. Other flood impacts include limited food supplies and access, rapidly rising market prices, increased water borne diseases, poor sanitation and a shortage of clean water. So far there is limited humanitarian response. OCHA is planning an inter-agency emergency assessment of the flood affected areas.
- Severe flooding of the Shabelle River in Hiran region displaced or negatively affected an estimated 7,000 households. Flood impacts include displaced populations, isolated villages, blocked trade routes, damaged cash crops, destroyed latrines and contaminated hand dug wells. Humanitarian response was quick but inadequate to meet all the needs. Recent civil insecurity around Belet Weyne has hampered humanitarian access.
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