Key Issues and Implications
Civil Insecurity Continues to Threaten
Food Security and Livelihoods in Southern Somalia
The recent assassination attempt on the TFG Prime Minister, Ali Gedi, highlights the potential for a rapid deterioration of the political situation, which would have direct and widespread negative implications on food and livelihood security. Reports of the increased importation of weaponry, allied to existing political divisions within the TFG, means that localised or widespread conflict in southern Somalia cannot be ruled out. Therefore the general Alert Phase Classification status for southern Somalia remains.
Implications for Action: (1) Contingency planning for the possibility of widespread humanitarian relief continues to be an urgent priority for Southern Somalia. (2) Recommitment to peaceful negotiations from all political parties.
Delayed and Below Normal Deyr 2005 Rainfall to Date in Southern Somalia of Increased Concern
The start of the Deyr rains (Oct.-Dec.) is delayed in southern Somalia, with the exception of patchy and localized showers in parts of Bakool, Hiran and Bay regions. Though it is still too early to predict the overall outcome of the Deyr rains, this late and below normal start is of increased concern, especially given it is preceded by a below normal 2005 Gu rainfall throughout southern Somalia. If the Deyr rains remain below normal or fail in Southern Somalia implications are: (a) total annual crop production (June '05-May '06) could be the lowest in a decade, (b) resulting in an annual cereal availability shortfall, and (c) severely depleted rangeland and livestock conditions. Such a scenerio would translate directly into increased problems of food access and increased food security. See Climate Article p. 2, Agriculture Article p.3, and Livestock Article p. 4.
Agro-pastoralist and Pastoralists in Gedo and Juba at High Risk to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
Agro-pastoralist and pastoralists in Gedo and Juba regions are at High Risk of an Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis within the next two months if the Deyr rains are below normal or fail. Pasture and water is already severely depleted, livestock conditions are weak, cattle prices are significantly reduced (50% decline since April '05) and cattle deaths are reported since October. Livestock from Juba and Southern Gedo, as well as a significant number of in-migrated livestock from Kenya are concentrated in Juba riverine areas and water and fodder sources there can not continue to sustain such high concentrations. New reports indicate that entire communities in agro-pastoral areas are now abandoning their villages in search of water and pasture. See Livestock Article p. 3 and Regional Highlights p.4.
Implications for Actions: (1) Close monitoring of Deyr rains, livestock migrations and production, and pastoral conditions overall, (2) Enhanced livestock intervention programs are needed, including provision of animal health services and rehabilitation of strategic boreholes, (3) If Deyr rains are below normal or fail, there will be a need for a coordinated multi-agency emergency assessment in Dec. '05, ideally coordinated with Kenya and Ethiopia due to the regional nature of the pastoral problem and cross-border linkages.
Areas Most Affected by Conflict in Bay Region now in a State of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
An estimated 94,000 people are now in a state of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, which is a deterioration of the Alert status highlighted in Sept. '05. This deterioration is caused by the compounding impact of high levels of livelihood asset loss following contracted civil conflict, aggravated by Gu '05 crop failure (31% of PWA), delayed and below normal start of Deyr rains, overall poor pasture conditions and limited income earning opportunities. Nutrition indicators also indicate a worsening nutrition situation over the last three months, and are now 'significantly above the long term trend'. See Regional Highlights p. 4, Map p. 5, and Nutrition Article p. 3.
Implications for Action: (1) Reconciliation of conflict is critical to facilitate access to the region by humanitarian agencies. Currently humanitarian agencies can not easily access this area and are pulling out, (2.) Immediate livelihood support is required for affected households, as well as continued targetted feeding and health programs.
Worse Case Scenario: Widespread Civil Insecurity Combined with Deyr '05 Rain Failure Has the Potential to Lead to a Major Humanitarian Emergency in Southern Somalia
In a worst case scenario, widespread civil insecurity combined with Deyr rain failure would likely lead to a major Humanitarian Emergency in Southern Somalia. Thus, FSAU is classifying most of Southern Somalia to be at Moderate Risk of Humanitarian Emergency. While currently unpredictable, yet possible, this early warning is based on a potential combined scenario of: (a) failure of Deyr rains leading to the lowest annual cereal production in ten years, (b) unresolved and increasing political tensions resulting in widespread conflict that would lead to direct loss of lives, displacement, and disruption in market channels for food and other essential commodity flows, (c) the continued deterioration of rangeland conditions, (d) decreased humanitarian access and disrupted relief supply lines, and (e) the deterioration of on-going localized conflicts in El Wak, Bay, and Bakool. While civil insecurity could worsen at any time, in early December impacts of the Deyr rain season can be evaluated with reasonable accuracy.
Implications for Actions: (1) Stepped-up efforts at comprehensive contingency planning, (2) Recommitment to peaceful negotiation from all political actors, and (3) Close monitoring of nutritional, climatic, civil security, pastoral, and agricultural conditions. FSAU will monitor all of these aspects closely and provide updates as necessary.
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