High rainfall in the Ethiopian catchments of Shabelle River over the last week causing heavy floods in South Eastern Ethiopia. Within Somalia there was moderate to light rainfall reported in the country. The main threat of flooding in Somalia is from continued heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands. The USGS GeoSFM indicates continued high flows throughout the Shabelle basin both in Ethiopia and Somalia, with a 6 day lag between levels in Gode and Belet Weyne.
No additional villages have been reported affected by floods in the last week. The Middle Shabelle Authority has instructed farmers to open irrigation canals in the lowers reaches of Shabelle river to reduce risks of local flooding.
No major floods have been reported to date on the Juba river Forecasts for the coming week are for moderate rains in the Juba and Shabelle basins both in Ethiopia and Somalia. Light rains of up to 60mm are forecast for the coming week along the coastal areas.
River levels continued to increase over the last week at Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti gauging stations. Levels predicted by the model at downstream stations are likely to be reduced by out of bank flow and abstraction by irrigation. The forecast for the coming week is for a continued increase in the river level, especially as the high levels on the Ethiopian reaches of the river are transmitted downstream. Flood risk remains moderate to high on the Shabelle.
River levels dropped gradually over the last one week and this trend is likely to continue as there was little rainfall in the Juba Basin in the last week. The levels predicted at downstream stations are likely to be reduced due to irrigation and dheshek filling throughout the course of the river. There is moderate flood risk during the forecast period.
This bulletin is produced by FAO Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) Project and USGS/FEWS NET Somalia. SWALIM and USGS/FEWS NET acknowledge Care Somalia, CINS & SCUK for their continued assistance.