"Analyses show that rainfall levels through mid-April will likely be amongst the driest on record (since 1981)…” (IGAD, 17/4/2019). Current conditions are worse than in the same period of 2017 and are only surpassed by the drought of 2011. Much of the Somali population affected in the 2017/18 drought has had no opportunity to recover.
Significant deficit in 2019 Gu rainfall is forecasted to continue in May, already resulting in water shortages, increased commodity prices, deterioration of livestock and agropastoral conditions, and displacement of people.
Food security situation and nutrition outlook are deteriorating, particularly in northern and central Somalia. 4.9 million Somalis are in need of humanitarian assistance and protection, of which 1.5 million are in acute food insecurity. Should the forecasted deficit in rainfall persevere, the number of people in need of immediate assistance is expected to dramatically increase through 2019. Early action is needed to avert food security and nutrition crisis by scaling up immediate life-saving assistance. However, only 15% of the needs defined in the 2019 humanitarian response plan (HRP) seeking USD 1.08 billion are currently funded.