Somalia: Drought response & famine prevention (15 February - 15 March 2023)

KEY FIGURES

8.25M PEOPLE IN NEED

7.6M PEOPLE TARGETED

$2.6B FUNDS REQUIRED

$379M 15% FUNDED AS OF 21 MARCH

335 OPERATIONAL PARTNERS

Partners Scale Up Response To Disease Outbreaks

Since the start of the year, nearly 2,000 suspected cases of cholera have been reported from 26 districts of Somalia, with most reported in Jubaland State and Banadir Region. Reported measles cases have also increased. Health partners have augmented their response interventions in drought-affected districts, but a further scale-up of health, water, sanitation, hygiene and nutrition services is urgently needed to contain the rising cases.

Prolonged drought in Somalia continues to limit access to safe water and adequate sanitation and hygiene services, contributing to a surge in outbreaks of cholera, Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD) and measles in Somalia. Somalia has had uninterrupted cholera transmission in 26 droughtaffected districts since 2022, and in Banadir Region since the drought of 2017. Due to severe drought, an estimated 8 million people need water, sanitation and hygiene assistance in 2023, a 25 per cent increase from last year.

Partners report that about 1,800 of 8,200 water sources in the country are non-functional and require urgent rehabilitation. The drought has also led to high rates of acute malnutrition which increases the risks from preventable diseases like cholera, AWD and measles, especially among children.

Linked to poor access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene, partners report high numbers of cholera and AWD cases from Jubaland State and Banadir Region, with more than 240 patients (including 192 cildren under 5) admitted in Belet Xaawo Khalil Hospital since 6 February. Partners are also concerned about the risk of water-related diseases in Sool Region where new displacement has placed an additional strain on existing water systems.
Since January, at least 1,845 suspected cases of cholera have been reported from 26 districts. The overall case fatality rate is 0.2 per cent which is below the emergency threshold of ≥1 per cent. A total 926 measles cases have also been reported, children being most of those affected. In 2022, reported cases of cholera and measles exceeded 15,000 and 17,000, respectively according to the Ministry of Health.

Health Cluster partners have scaled-up responses but face significant challenges including limited availability of safe water due to the drought, limited resources for WASH response, and a high risk of cross-border transmission of cholera from neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia that have also reported outbreaks. Partners are supporting five cholera treatment centers in Baidoa, Marka, Banadir, and Kismayo and in January, vaccinated over 905,000 (90 per cent of the target) people against cholera in IDP camps in 10 drought-affected districts.

In Jubaland, partners are installing a water bladder of 9,000 litres, trucking water and building latrines in Afmadhow and Belet Xaawo. Hygiene promotion, borehole construction and waste management activities are ongoing. However, significant response gaps remain including inadequate supplies and lack of community engagement. Moreover, fewer than a third of all people living in drought-affected areas have access to essential health care.

Overview

IPC Findings Confirm Situation Remains Critical

The scale-up in humanitarian assistance and a slightly more favourable rainfall performance have temporarily averted famine in Somalia, but the situation remains critical. From January to March, nearly 5 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including close to 1.4 million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 96,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Humanitarian partners will need to sustain the scale-up of muti-sectoral assistance through at least June, including food, health, nutrition and water and sanitation interventions.

In September/October 2022, famine was projected in several areas of Somalia based on a number of factors: inadequate levels of assistance, well-below-average rainfall in October to December 2022, increasing commodity prices and a high risk of epidemic outbreaks, particularly cholera and measles. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, many of these factors are unlikely to materialize as previously anticipated, based on evidence collected in December. Humanitarians were able to reach at least 5.5 million people per month across Somalia in the last half of 2022, and delivery of assistance through cash transfer enabled families to meet basic needs like food, water as well as rebuild coping capacity. The slight improvement in rainfall performance enabled some crops to grow and temporarily alleviated water and pasture scarcity in some areas, but the gains were modest, particularly in the arid central and northern regions.

According to the FAO’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) and Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) analysis, households in areas facing the deepest rainfall deficits remain at risk of further erosion of livelihoods, destitution and displacement, and loss of life. Famine would be likely if the April-June 2023 rains perform very poorly and result in crop failure in southern Bay Region, and if humanitarians are unable to reach families in these high-priority areas with sufficient assistance.

While famine has been staved off for now, the humanitarian emergency in Somalia is far from over and needs remain high due to severe drought and conflict. Many people have lost their livelihoods and coping capacities and are relying heavily on humanitarian assistance to meet basic needs. Some of the most affected areas continue to face the risk of famine, particularly Baidoa and Mogadishu IDP sites as well as Buurhakaba District in South West State. Critical levels of acute malnutrition persist in Somalia. This year, an estimated 1.8 million children will be acutely malnourished, including 477,700 who are likely to be severely malnourished. From April to June, about 6.5 million people are expected to face food crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above). Not only are there more people in need, but the severity of needs is much more pronounced. Prolonged and extreme conditions have resulted in excess mortality.

The scale-up of muti-sectoral assistance needs to be sustained through at least June, including food, health, nutrition and water and sanitation interventions. To ensure that all people in need are reached, all parties in Somalia must allow and facilitate rapid and unimpeded humanitarian access because conflict and insecurity are major impediments to humanitarian operations. In many parts of the country, conflict and insecurity have displaced people, disrupted market access and functionality, and impeded access to humanitarian assistance. Nearly 660,000 people, of whom 375,770 are estimated to need assistance, live within territory controlled by non-state armed actors and are largely out of reach.