Attachments
Activation Overview
The Somali Red Crescent Society (SRCS) has activated its Early Action Protocol for Drought.
The country is facing a severe drought in 2025 and below-normal rains experienced in late 2024 (Deyr season) will likely further aggravate the situation. Drier-than-usual conditions are also expected to persist in 2025, particularly impacting northeastern, central, and southern Somalia. ICPAC IGAD has also issued out a below-normal rainfall forecast for the March April May rainfall season. Given this situation, likely impacts will include food insecurity, water scarcity, malnutrition, and displacement. These impacts will likely be felt from May onwards as the March, April, May (MAM) rainfall season (which most of the population depends on) will be below normal. In response to the forecasted below normal rainfall season, the SRCS conducted an analysis/ ran the Drought EAP trigger model to compare with the GHACOF forecast. The trigger model utilizes SPI and FEWS food insecurity projections.
As the trigger statement reads: ´´When ICPAC issues a SPl-12 forecast of less than -1 for a district AND the current FEWSNET food insecurity projection reaches at least 0.7 in its derived population-weighted index in the same district, then we will act in this district´´. Using the observational component of the EAP trigger, the SRCS calculated SPI-7 for June- December 2024. This revealed negative values across most of Somalia, driven by the poor performance of the OND season, indicating a prolonged period of low rainfall. Currently, observations alone (SPI-7) indicate significant dry conditions to date, with SPI values already approaching the trigger threshold (below -0.8). By definition, a “wetter than normal” forecast would reduce the overall SPI-12 magnitude, moving it away from the trigger threshold, whereas a “drier than normal” forecast would exacerbate the situation, pushing SPI-12 closer to the threshold. At present, the forecast suggests an increased probability of drought across all of Somalia (GHACOF MAM rainfall seasonal forecast). A quantitative merging of this forecast with existing observations would, by definition, increase the magnitude of the negative SPI. Expert judgment from the Red Cross Climate Centre suggests a strong likelihood that areas with currently SPI values of -0.8 would meet or exceed the trigger threshold of -1 when integrating the latest ‘dry’ seasonal forecast. For additional justification, we refer to the “Precipitation Drought Index” (PDI) provided by FAO-SWALIM as part of their drought monitoring tool (link). The predicted geographical areas where drought impacts will be felt are Togdheer, Sool, Bari and Mudug regions. The areas where the trigger was reached show strong drought indicators i.e a significant proportion of the geographical areas are in Crisis and emergency phases from current FEWS NET food insecurity projections, both near-term and medium-term. Both regions indicate at least 0.7 in their derived population-weighted index.
The early actions to be implemented are early warning information dissemination, multi-purpose cash as well as rehabilitation of key water infrastructure. This EAP activation will aim to mitigate the impact of forecasted drought by providing vulnerable people with early warning information, multi-purpose cash as well as rehabilitation of key water infrastructure. Targeting for drought-induced food insecurity (9,000 people) will focus on vulnerable households who have limited coping capacity to respond to the impacts of food insecurity in the target areas. Targeting will be guided by existing vulnerability criteria of the SRCS and the government. Beneficiaries will include the disabled, child-headed households, female headed households and the chronically ill and the elderly. Water scarcity is a cross-cutting impact impacting both pastoralists (host communities) and IDPs (7,200 people). Thus, selecting and targeting of the villages/communities to rehabilitate the water points will be guided by the state of the water points per village with priority given to water points in a poor state within the triggered districts.