Attachments
A. SITUATION ANALYSIS
Description of the crisis
Somalia is facing one of its most severe droughts in decades following multiple successive failed rainy seasons, culminating in the near-total failure of the 2025 Deyr (October–December) rains.
Between February and March 2026, an estimated 6.5 million people in Somalia experienced severe acute food insecurity almost twice the number recorded in August 2025 for those classified under IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse. Of these, over 2 million people were in Phase 4 (Emergency). The scale and severity of needs required urgent humanitarian support to safeguard livelihoods, address food consumption gaps, and prevent further loss of life.
Drought conditions have intensified across Somalia, driven by successive multiple seasons of poor rainfall and extreme dry conditions, with impacts becoming increasingly evident as the Jilaal (January–March) dry season begins. According to authorities, 4.61 million people are affected nationwide, including more than 490,730 displaced persons.
Some examples of affected regions include Galgaduud and Mudug, where more than 1.1 million people are reportedly impacted; Togdheer, Sanaag, Awdal , Woqooyi Galbeed, Gedo and Bari, where over 1 million people are affected; and Bay, Bakool and Lower Shabelle, where more than 930,000 people are affected, according to the authorities. In Middle Shabelle region, sections of the Shabelle River have dried up, leaving more than 65 villages in Jowhar District without reliable water sources and forcing communities to rely on failing shallow wells and overstretched boreholes. Similarly, water levels along the Juba River have dropped sharply in Gedo Region, where authorities estimate that more than 200,000 people are facing water shortages.
According to the World Food Programme (WFP), food insecurity is projected to worsen significantly, with up to 6.5 million people expected to face Crisis or worse outcomes between January and March 2026, while 1.85 million children under five are at risk of severe acute malnutrition through mid-2026 (WFP, 2025). Current indicators mirror early warning signals observed ahead of the 2011 famine and the 2022 near-famine emergency (WFP, 2025; FSNAU– SWALIM, 2025).
The drought has devastated agriculture and livestock. Rainfall during the October–December “Deyr” season was less than 30% of normal in many areas, leaving crops to fail and pastures to wither. Livestock deaths are widespread, and rangelands have been severely degraded. Water sources have dried up or become contaminated, forcing communities to rely on expensive trucked water. Temperatures have soared to between 35°C and 40°C, worsening soil dryness and accelerating water scarcity.
While the Gu 2026 seasonal outlook indicates above-average rainfall across much of Somalia, this alone will not resolve the humanitarian emergency: even under a perfect rainfall scenario, households with depleted seed stocks and no fertilizer will be unable to plant without immediate agricultural input support. In addition, harvest cannot materialise until mid-July at the earliest. Structural factors, including collapsed livestock herds, severely malnourished children requiring immediate therapeutic feeding, and millions of displaced people whose return depends on livelihood recovery rather than rainfall. This means that humanitarian assistance must be sustained throughout 2026 and into 2027 before the affected population starts recovering from the emergency. With Deyr 2026 remaining highly uncertain, another failed season would push Somalia's famine risk from contingent to active.
Over 185,000 people have been displaced from northern regions such as Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag, with thousands more leaving Bari, Mudug, and Nugaal in search of water and pasture. In Puntland alone, nearly one million people need assistance, including 130,000 in life-threatening situations. Emergency food aid has sharply declined from 1.1 million recipients in August to just 350,000 in November due to funding shortfalls. Health and nutrition services are also under strain, with hundreds of feeding and stabilization centres at risk of closure.
According to WFP Somalia is on the cusp of a major humanitarian breakdown. Consecutive rainfall failures, recordlow river levels, and collapsing livelihoods mirror the same warning signals that preceded the 2011 famine and the near-famine emergency of 2022. This is not a routine seasonal shock; it marks the re-emergence of a welldocumented trajectory toward catastrophe. Nearly one million Somalis are projected to face IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) within weeks, as acute malnutrition rises at an alarming pace. Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) prevalence already exceeds 25% among internally displaced persons (IDPs) and agropastoral livelihood zones, echoing the early stages of the 2011 famine and the late 2021 crisis. The next deterioration is predictable, measurable, and preventable, but only if immediate and decisive action is taken.
The international response remains limited. The UN Central Emergency Response Fund allocated $10 million for early drought action, aiming to assist over 600,000 people. However, Somalia’s 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) is only 11.3% funded (as of March), leaving critical gaps in food, water, and health support.
The Northern Regions are badly hit. Somaliland’s drought crisis continues to escalate, according to the latest statement from the Office of the Vice President (Chairman of the National Drought Response Committee) on 7 November 2025, and updates from NADFOR, humanitarian partners, and regional coordinators. Conditions are deteriorating rapidly across most parts of the country, with several regions now experiencing severe and widespread impacts.
According to latest statement from the Chairman of the National Drought Response Committee the crisis stems from consecutive failed rainy seasons first the Gu’ rains (April–June), followed by a complete absence of Deyr rainfall. This climatic failure has led to the drying of berkads, placed excessive pressure on the few operational boreholes, and triggered rising levels of drinking water scarcity and food insecurity. Pasture and rangeland resources have been severely depleted, forcing households and livestock into extreme stress. Water scarcity has compelled communities to travel long distances or rely on costly water trucking, while livestock health has sharply declined due to inadequate grazing and water access.
Agricultural production has collapsed, with widespread crop failures leaving farmers without food stocks or seeds for the next planting cycle. Collectively, these shocks have eroded household resilience and pushed large numbers of people into heightened vulnerability. An estimated 1,037,370 individuals (172,895 households) are currently facing crisis-level acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above).
The drought affects all Somaliland, however, the most critical impacts are reported in Togdheer, Sanaag, MaroodiJeex, and the wider Hawd pastoral zone, where water shortages, pasture loss, and livestock mortality are most severe. Awdal and Salel Regions continue to face significant challenges due to persistent drought conditions, reduced agricultural output, and acute water shortages across agro-pastoral and coastal communities. Other regions, including Sool and Sahil, are similarly experiencing severe drought-related disruptions and are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
As per the UNHCR have also reported that the severe drought in Somaliland Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag Regions has triggered massive displacement and heightened protection risks. The regions of Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag are facing severe and prolonged drought following the failure of the expected Deyr rains. Water sources have dried up, crop production has collapsed, and livestock the primary livelihood asset for pastoralist communities are dying due to lack of pasture and water. This has significantly worsened food insecurity among affected households.
According to the Protection and Solutions Monitoring Network (PSMN), an estimated 26,000 households (156,000 individuals) have been displaced from these areas. A substantial number have crossed into Ethiopia, with approximately 9,300 households (55,800 individuals) moving toward Gaashamo District and parts of Mirqaan and Bokh Districts in search of pasture and water. Widespread livestock deaths have been reported, with an estimated 60,000 animals dead and more than 120,000 in critical need of pasture and water. A growing number of households are sliding into acute food insecurity. Early warnings indicate that without immediate response efforts, the crisis could escalate further, affecting thousands more across these and neighbouring eastern and coastal regions.
An interagency drought field monitoring mission in Puntland from 27 November to 1 December found more than 70 percent of pastoral livelihoods have collapsed in Puntland, severely undermining household resilience. According to the FSNAU Post-Gu 2025 Food and Nutrition IPC analysis, over one million people in Puntland are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions representing nearly one-third of Somalia’s total food-insecure population. Rising malnutrition, disease outbreaks, and secondary displacement into Garowe, Bossaso, and Qardho underscore the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation across the state.
Puntland continues to experience severe drought conditions following four consecutive seasons of failed or below normal rainfall. The recently concluded 2025 Deyr rains were delayed, erratic, and ended prematurely, leaving most rural and pastoral communities without adequate pasture or water. This has worsened already fragile conditions caused by below-average 2024 Deyr rains. The drought has affected over 1.29 million people in Puntland, including 310,000 children under five suffering from acute malnutrition.
Field assessments indicate that livestock have migrated from across Puntland to rural areas of Ethiopia’s Somali Region in search of water and pasture. This influx is placing heavy pressure on host communities, with further arrivals anticipated and some families reportedly moving onward toward Ethiopia. Agro-pastoral and pastoral communities remain the worst affected, with most rural settlements facing severe water shortages especially those reliant on Berkads. Water prices have surged from USD 8 to USD 13 per barrel and are likely to rise further if rains continue to fail.
The crisis in Puntland coincides with severe funding cuts that have forced humanitarian partners to scale back or suspend food and nutrition pipelines, further compounding community vulnerability. Initial appeals issued by MoHADM on 13 January 2025 were followed by another appeal from the Puntland Vice President on 11 November 2025, urging humanitarian partners to provide urgent assistance to drought-affected communities.
Furthermore, The Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) and the Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) released their Joint Alert on the current Drought in Somalia dates 8 Dec. Community voices: Kurilaalo Village, Rako District, Bari Region Photo: SRCS Hawo Ismail Abdulle, a resident of Kurilaalo village in Rako district, Bari region described the severe impact of prolonged drought on both people and livestock in the area. She noted that the environmental conditions are visibly harsh, with dust surrounding homes and grazing areas, and that families are taking extreme measures to keep their animals alive. “To keep our animals alive, we mix fodder with water,” she explained, adding that community members climb trees to cut branches for feed and, when food such as rice is available, share it between people and livestock. To Hawo, the effects of the drought are widespread, with animals in varying states of distress, including malnutrition, extreme weakness, and death. She emphasized that the entire community is affected in the same manner and expressed reliance on faith and external assistance, stating, “We are waiting for Allah’s mercy and for the generosity that comes through others.” Hawo expressed gratitude for the water recently provided to the village and highlighted the continued need for additional support, particularly food assistance and access to pasture, to help families cope with the ongoing crisis.
Key highlights are;
• Somalia is experiencing a rapidly worsening drought, with severe to extreme drought conditions nationwide following the failed October to December 2025 Deyr rains.
• Water sources are depleting, and livelihoods are collapsing as crop harvests fail, livestock weaken and die, and population displacements rise, and the January to March 2026 dry Jilaal season is expected to worsen impact.
• The worsening drought is expected to trigger widespread population displacement, hunger and malnutrition unless urgent and timely actions are taken
Looking ahead the Alert also projects that the Jilaal dry season (January to March 2026) is expected to be exceptionally harsh, accelerating livestock mortality and exhausting remaining water sources. Even if the 2026 Gu rainfall (April to June 2026) is favourable, recovery will be slow due to severe land degradation and depleted livestock herds. Severely degraded rangelands and soils will require multiple rainfall events before meaningful recovery occurs. Households that have already lost livestock or failed to harvest will face continued and substantial food deficits well into mid to late 2026.
The Alert recommends urgent action is needed to stabilise conditions. Humanitarian assistance must be urgently scaled up and sustained at least until mid-2026 to prevent extreme food security and nutrition outcomes. Immediate priorities include:
• Emergency water provision (borehole rehabilitation, water trucking, temporary water points)
• Livestock support (feed, supplements, veterinary services)
• Cash transfers to preserve household purchasing power and prevent asset loss
• Pre-emptive destocking and strategic herd concentration near viable water sources
• Preparations for 2026 Gu (desilting berkads and pans, rehabilitating shallow wells, distributing droughttolerant seeds)
• Strengthened hydrometeorological monitoring for early rainfall onset tracking