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Highlights
The 2019 Deyr (October-December) rainy season started early between mid-September and early October. The rains continued to intensify in space and time across Somalia, reaching a peak during the second dakad of October. Rainfall intensity declined during the last dekad of October. Many areas in Somalia recorded normal to above normal rains, with the exception of northeastern parts of the country that recorded below normal rains (Maps 1 to 5 and 9).
The good rains have replenished water sources leading to a reduction of water stress and boosted both pasture growth and crop cultivation. There has been an improvement in rangeland conditions, livestock body conditions and milk production as well as increased conception among all livestock species in most parts of the country except some pockets of Bari, Coastal Deeh and Hawd Pastoral livelihoods of northeast and central regions which received low amounts of rainfall during the month. However, this is expected to have minimal adverse impact on livestock due to improved migration possibilities to adjacent livelihoods where rainfall performance has been relatively better. Apart from germination failure and replanting in areas affected by flash floods, crop production prospects in rain-fed agropastoral livelihoods are good due to sufficient moisture in the soil to support plant growth and development.
In riverine livelihoods along the Shabelle and Juba rivers, heavy floods and waterlogging have caused delays in crop cultivation. As a result, overall area planted in low-lying parts of riverine livelihoods along the Shabelle and Juba rivers is low for this time of the year. Heavy rains and increased river levels in October led to flooding in Beledweyne, Jowhar and Bardheere districts. Low-lying agricultural areas along the two rivers have also been adversely affected due to flooding and water logging. Flash floods were also experienced in Bay, Bakool, Middle shabelle (Jowhar) and Banadir regions inundating farmlands and disrupting road networks. In Hiraan (Beletweyne and Buloburto), floods have damaging property and infrastructure and the internal displacement of over 240 000 people and the death of approximately 20 individuals, leading to worsening humanitarian conditions among the affected populations.
Average to above average rainfall in most parts of Somalia also had a positive impact on vegetation conditions in most regions of the country (Maps 6 to 8 and 10). According to the satellite-derived vegetation condition (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index – NDVI), which is used to assess vegetation vigor during the month, most areas in the country indicate good vegetation conditions compared to the short-term average. However, parts of Bari region and coastal areas of Lower Shabelle show mixed vegetation conditions with pocket areas showing some deterioration. These are areas that did not receive significant amount of rainfall in October.