January Represents the first month ofthe dry jilaal (January-March) season. Dry weather conditions characterized by dry winds and relatively high temperatures are exhibited in the month of January which is normal at this time of the year.
Observed rain gauge stations indicate drier than normal weather conditions across the country with all stations reporting zero amounts of rainfall (Map 1 and Table 1). This is further confirmed by Satellite-derived (TAMSAT -RFE) Rainfall Estimates (Map 2-5).
The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (eMODIS NDVI) for January 2016 shows close to normal vegetation condition in many parts of the country with some livelihoods in Hiran, large parts of Bakool, M. Shabelle and small pockets in pastoral livelihoods of L. Juba still showing improvement in vegetation conditions. However significant deterioration of vegetation vigour is evident in the Guban pastoral of Awdal, Costal deeh of Hobyo District and small to large pastoral livelihoods in Jubas, Gedo and parts of Bay and Lower Shabelle agropastoral livelihood zones. In these areas, the below normal vegetation plus crop residue would still be adequate for livestock consumption. Field reports indicated poor pasture conditions in large areas in Northen Inland Pastoral livelihood zones of Sanaag and Sool, Bari and parts of Nugal region (Map 10).
On-going agricultural activities in the southern regions comprise harvesting of late planted crops such as sesame. Due to below normal rainfall and prevailing drought conditions in large portions of Northwest and Northeast Somalia and large influx of livestock in-migration from drought affected parts of Djibouti, Ethiopia and other adjacent livelihoods and the dry Jilaal season, the pasture is expected to further deteriorate or get depleted. Drought conditions are expected to prevail until at least the start of the 2016 Gu (April –June) season with rainfall anticipated to bring relief to nearby drought-affected areas and open up the possibility for livestock migration to other areas. Currently, water trucking due to water scarcity has been reported in the above mentioned drought affected areas.