Somalia: Climate Update August 2017 Monthly Rainfall and NDVI (Issued September 29, 2017)

Situation Report
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Karan rains in August were generally confined to Northwest (Awdal, W Galbeed, Togdher and parts of Sanaag) while Hagaa light rains were concentrated in the South (Shabelle, and parts of Juba). Heavy Karan rains of more than 140mm were recorded in Borama, Qulenjeed and Gebiley. Moreover Erigabvo and Aburin stations recorded above average rains of 72mm and 82mm respectively. Other stations that recorded significant rains include: Sheikh (24mm), Hargeisa (40mm), Mogadishu (18mm) and Hudur (19mm). Field reports indicate prevalence of light rains in Bay (Baidoa and Qansadere) and East Golis of Iskushuban and Qandala districts as well as along the coastal area and parts of the Southern Rainfed Maize Agropastoral (Map 1; Table 1).

Satellite-derived rainfall estimates show Karan rainfall occurrence in northwest with unconfirmed light rains in parts of Hawd of Galgadud and localized areas in Bari ,Bakol, Gedo, and the Jubas (Maps 2-5 and 9). The August 2017 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) which measures vegetation cover, shows close to normal vegetation conditions in large areas of the country, apart from small areas in Northwest agropastoral of Awdal and W. Galbeed , Golis of Sanaag as well as parts of Bay, and Gedo that exhibit stressed biomass. Areas with large vegetation deficits include: Southern Rainfed Maize Agropastoral livelihood zone of Lower Shabelle, the Cowpea belt , parts of Sorghum High Potential of Shabelle regions and small to large pastoral areas in Juba (Maps 6-8 and 10).

The 2017 Gu season cereal crop harvest was almost completed in August in southern parts of the country. While in the Northwest region, cereal crops are at varying stages of development. Rainfall during August has been beneficial in improving browse and water conditions in many parts of the country. However water scarcity has been reported in East Golis of Alula and Burhakaba and Baidoa districts in Bay. Land preparation activities for the Deyr (October-December) season are ongoing in agropastoral livelihoods in the South.

According to the 47th Forum of Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook (21-22 August 2017) there is an increased likelihood of normal to below normal October to December Deyr rainfall performance in all most parts of Somalia. However, latest information from other sources such as NOAA and USGS indicate that there is an increased likelihood for a La Nina and with it, there is an increased chance of belowaverage Deyr rainfall in Somalia.