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Gu (April – June) rainy season started effectively in the first dekad of April in the regions of Northwest.
Most stations in Northeast, Central and South indicate a late start of the season, in the second and third dekads of April. Many stations in Central and South indicated below average rainfall performance in April. However, few stations have recorded above average rains, including Burtinle (142mm), Dinsor (208mm), Bardale (144mm) and Luuq (213mm). However, some stations recorded, rainfall amounts in the regions of Middle Juba (Buale - 23mm) and Middle Shabelle (Jowhar - 23mm). Intense rainfall activity in the Ethiopian highlands in April 2016 has led to increased river levels in Somalia. Localized flooding occurred in Gedo (Luuq and Garbaharey) due to above average rains, while in Lower Shabelle, river flooding was reported in Kurtunwarey District due to an open river embankment. According to SWALIM rainfall forecast released on 30th April 2016, there is a high risk of flooding along the Juba river in Luuq district and its environs.
Rainfall estimates (RFE) derived from Satellite (TAMSAT) confirms effective start of seasonal rainfall in the third dekad of April throughout the country. Further, the satellite shows prevalence of dry conditions in parts of Northeast and Central during the first two dekads of April. The April 2016 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), vegetation conditions show decrease in biomass in small to large areas of agropastoral livelihoods of Shabelles and Bay as well as parts of Gedo, Bakool, Hiran and Costal Deeh livelihood zones in Central region (Map 6-8 and 10). The vegetation biomass deficits in Bay and Hiran regions that received large amounts of rains may be attributed to poor quality of the NDVI signal due to cloud coverage rather than actual deterioration of the vegetation conditions. Otherwise, cumulative effects of late start of Gu season rainfall and harsh Jillal (January-March) are the main contributing factors to poor vegetation observed in the abovementioned areas.
Generally, the April rains have been beneficial for the improvement of pasture and water replenishment in rangeland areas in many parts of the country especially in the drought affected parts of Northwest Somalia. However, poor surface water conditions have been reported in large areas of Addun and Hawd livelihood zones in Central. The main agricultural activities in the South in April comprised planting and replanting. Crop replanting was occasioned by late start of the rains, which resulted in poor germination and, in some cases, crop wilting due to moisture stress, especially in Bakool. The crops that survived moisture stress are now at establishment stage. Farming activities in riverine areas of Shabelle was possible due to improved water levels although possibility of floods creates a risk to crop development.