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CONTEXT
The current El Nino situation, coupled with an expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is expected to result in an above-average rainfall for the upcoming deyr rains, October- December. The projection has more than 90% certainty, calling on mitigation, preparedness and early action. The El Nino and positive IO are likely to cause riverine and flash floods, leading to loss of lives, property, population displacement, and destruction of infrastructure and crops in the field. Impact likely to be greatest in riverine livelihoods (along Shabelle and Juba rivers). However, flash floods in other (low-lying) areas receiving above-average rainfall are also likely. The impact of the floods is estimated to last for decades in the absence of appropriate intervention. In addition, El Nino is likely to exacerbate the extended humanitarian impact of a multi-season drought. The risks of disease outbreaks (including cholera) due to contaminated and stagnant water could also occur, with a likely exacerbating impact on acute malnutrition.
Children are amongst the most vulnerable during times of disasters and emergencies. During past floods, children faced a heightened risk of dangers and injuries, especially from ERW’s and destruction of homes, drowning, displacement, family separation, engagement in hazardous labor, disease, death and psychosocial distress as a result of destruction of livelihoods, shelter and weakened protection systems . Children lost access to their regular support structures or systems, such as schools, friends, family members, daily routines, which are important for children’s well-being and safety. Parents and caregivers also experienced psychosocial distress, leading to children facing elevated exposure to forms of GBV and lack of care in their homes. Early warning messages about the risk of flooding and related impact such as disease outbreaks, dangers and injuries were also most often targeted at adults and not tailored for children and disseminated in locations where children do not normally congregate such as schools, child-friendly spaces.