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General Overview
Significant efforts in the scale-up of multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance, supported by slightly more favourable than previously foreseen rainfall performance, have contributed to a moderate improvement in food security and nutrition outcomes. However, the situation remains at critical levels.
The latest analysis shows that between January to March 2023, nearly 5 million people are still experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), including close to 1.4 million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 96,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4) levels of acute malnutrition persist in most parts of the country. Between January and December 2023, it is estimated that approximately 1.8 million children will be acutely malnourished, including nearly 478,000 children who are likely to be severely malnourished.
Between April and June 2023, about 6.5 million people across Somalia are expected to face Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), of which 1.9 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). A highly concerning number of people (223,000), more than double that of the current period, is expected to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the most affected areas across Somalia through mid-2023.
Deteriorating food security and acute malnutrition conditions are expected in the projected period due to the impacts of five consecutive seasons of below-average to poor rainfall, a likely sixth season of below-average rainfall from April to June 2023, and high food prices, exacerbated by conflict/insecurity and disease outbreaks. Despite the coordinated efforts to sustain humanitarian assistance, in the projected period, the confirmed funding levels for humanitarian food assistance in particular remain inadequate to avert deteriorating conditions for the most vulnerable populations, leading to a 1.5 million people increase in the population in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above). While humanitarian food assistance has been scaled up since July 2022, and funding is currently sufficient to reach, on average, 6.2 million people per month throughout March, between April-June 2023, the confirmed funding would only be sufficient to assist around 2.7 million people – about half the current beneficiaries.
Urgent, coordinated and timely scaling up of multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance (in-kind food, cash/voucher transfers, nutrition, WASH, and health-related) is required from April and likely through late 2023 to prevent extreme food insecurity and acute malnutrition outcomes and excess mortality.
In the IPC analysis conducted in December 2022, the IPC Technical Working Group had projected IPC Phase 5 (Famine) for the period April to June 2023 among the IDPs who arrived in Baidoa and Mogadishu from April 2022 and rural households in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts.
However, the coordinated humanitarian assistance scale up, and more favourable Gu season forecasted outcomes, will likely contribute to a slight alleviation of the food insecurity and acute malnutrition conditions, including improved access to water. Consequently, the IPC Technical Working Group did not project Famine for these populations in the projection period.
Nonetheless, the situation remains extremely critical and not stabilized. Among the newly arrived IDPs in Baidoa and Mogadishu and rural households in Burhakaba district, a Risk of Famine persists between April and June 2023 if (1) the April to June 2023 Gu season rainfall is poorer than currently forecast, leading to more crop production failures and, if (2) humanitarian assistance does not reach the country’s most vulnerable populations.