Revised Projection for the Number of People in Need, (April - June 2018)

The February-June 2018 IPC projection for Somalia (issued at the end of January 2018) was based on the following main assumptions:

  • A harsh 2018 Jilaal (Jan-Mar)

  • Likely below average 2018 Gu (Apr-Jun) rainfall across most parts of Somalia

  • Limited/no humanitarian assistance

  • A total Somalia population of 12.3 million with the following breakdown: 5.2 million urban, 6 million rural and 1.1 million IDPs (see table below)

Projected IPC figure for April-June 2018 have been revised as shown in the above table based on a combination of the following:

  • Jilaal impact of 2018 Jilaal (Jan-Mar): mild Jilaal

  • Impact of 2018 Gu (Apr-Jun) rainfall: average to above average most parts of Somalia

  • Riverine and flash floods in April and May and likely impact on food security

  • Sustained, large-scale humanitarian (food security) assistance (1.7 to 1.9 million per month between Feb-April 2018)

  • Changes (increases) in IDP population figures and a corresponding change in rural and urban population: 4.5 million urban, 5.1 million rural and 2.6 million IDPs (2.2 million urban IDPs and 0.4 million rural IDPs)