Review of Gu 2025, Hagaa Outlook and Implications for Livelihoods and Programming for Somalia, Issued: 16 June 2025

Key Highlights

Several key findings have been obtained following a review of the 2025 Gu (March-April-May) and Hagaa (June-July-August) seasonal rainfall outlook:

• Earlier Than Expected Onset in Areas: Although the seasonal forecast had indicated a delayed start to the Gu 2025 rains, rainfall commenced earlier than anticipated across parts of southern and central Somalia. Rainfall was observed as early as midMarch in northwestern stations like Dilla, Wajaale, and Hargeisa. Southern regions, including Bu’aale (24 March), Buur Hakaba (25 March), and Qansax Dheere (8 April), also recorded early onset relative to forecast expectations. In contrast, a few northeastern stations such as Eyl, Burtinle, and Balli Dhiddin experienced delayed onset extending into early May. Overall, the rains progressed from northwestern Somaliland to southern and then northeastern Somalia, presenting a unique onset sequence for the Gu season.
• Normal to Above-Normal Rainfall in the South: Contrary to predictions of below-average rainfall, cumulative totals were normal to above-normal across much of southern and central Somalia. Stations like Baidoa in Bay region recorded over 400 mm (178.9 mm above LTM), while these other stations exceeded 250 mm: Qansax Dheere in Bay region (55.7 mm above LTM), Bu’aale in Middle Juba region (3.7 mm below LTM), and Uusgure in Bari region (193.3 mm above LTM) significantly improving vegetation conditions and water availability.
• Marked North–South Rainfall Disparity: A clear spatial contrast characterized the Gu 2025 season, with wetter conditions prevailing in southern Somalia and widespread dryness in the north. Despite some northern stations registering early onset, seasonal rainfall totals remained significantly below average, highlighting that early rains did not translate into good seasonal performance. In contrast to the frequent and intense wet spells in the south, northern regions— including Awdal, Sanaag, and Sool—experienced prolonged dry periods, with cumulative totals falling below 50 mm in several locations.
• Drought Improvement Concentrated in the South: The early and sustained rains are likely to have enhanced planting opportunities and replenishing water sources in agro-pastoral zones in the southern regions. The Combined Drought Index (CDI) shows REVIEW OF GU 2025, HAGAA OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS FOR LIVELIHOODS AND PROGRAMMING FOR SOMALIA Issued: 16 June 2025 Key Highlights substantial improvements across these regions by May 2025, with many zones recovering from prior drought classifications. However, moderate to severe drought conditions persist in parts of the northeast and northwest, especially Awdal and coastal Bari
• Hydro-Meteorological Hazards Reported: The season was also marked by several adverse events. Riverine flooding, driven by breakages and runoff along the Shabelle River, affected districts such as Jowhar, Balcad, and Afgooye. Meanwhile, intense convective storms in late May triggered flash floods in Mogadishu (Banadir region), and strong coastal winds disrupted maritime activities—signaling the shift to the Hagaa season.

This bulletin presents both qualitative and quantitative review of the temporal and spatial variation of the observed, and verification of the forecast Gu rainfall amount and anomaly, length of wet and dry spells, and onset dates. It also reviews the experienced (Gu) and current (Hagaa) and long term projected (Deyr) weather impacts on livelihoods over Somalia.