Key Highlights
The Deyr 2024 season in Somalia was marked by significant rainfall deficits, poor temporal and spatial distribution, and prolonged dry spells leading to moderate - severe drought conditions in southern and central regions. The ongoing Jilaal season, characterized by intense heat and aridity, is likely to have further exacerbated water and pasture stress, intensifying livelihood challenges. Looking ahead, the Gu 2025 season is forecasted to bring below-normal rainfall, delayed onset, and above-average temperatures, amplifying drought conditions and increasing humanitarian needs
The ongoing Jilaal season has intensified water and pasture scarcity, especially in Bay, Gedo, and Lower Shabelle regions, leading to heightened drought severity. These conditions are compounded by persistent La Niña influences, with reports of increased food insecurity, malnutrition, and displacement.
The outlook for Gu 2025 presents additional challenges:
- Below-normal rainfall is expected across most of Somalia, with a delayed onset predicted in key agricultural areas.
- Above-average temperatures will increase evapotranspiration, exacerbating water stress and reducing agricultural productivity.
- Humanitarian needs, including food security, malnutrition, and displacement, are expected to worsen, with women, children, and marginalized groups likely to be disproportionately affected.
This report presents a review of the Deyr 2024 performance, the current status of Jilaal, and the Gu 2025 outlook, along with actionable advisories to mitigate negative impacts.