Attachments
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
• The failure of the 2025 Deyr rains is driving Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes from January 2026 across large parts of northern, central, and southern Somalia, following one of the driest Deyr seasons on record, with rainfall below 30% of average and rapid collapse of water and pasture resources (FEWS NET).
• Food insecurity is worsening rapidly, with 4.4 million people projected at IPC Phase 3+ and IPC Phase 4 expanding through May 2026; Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) risks may emerge if Gu 2026 rains fail amid low humanitarian assistance and exhausted livelihoods (FEWS NET).
• Response capacity collapsing: 4.8 million people need assistance in 2026, but only 2.4 million (50%) are targeted; USD 852 million required, a 40% cut from 2025.
• 2026 outlook fragile: Even with average Gu 2026 rains, recovery will be slow; below-average Gu rainfall would sharply worsen outcomes, amplifying displacement, disease, and mortality risks.
• By December 2025, NRC Somalia had reached 748,617 people, with 654,643 supported through emergency response interventions. Of these, 205,039 people were reached through First-Line Emergency Response, addressing acute displacement driven by conflict and climate related shocks.
• In December alone, 114,769 people were reached, including 14,384 through First-Line Emergency Response. NRC also maintained a significant reach of 273,801 people in hard-to reach areas.
• Displacement pressure intensifying: Drought driven loss of livelihoods and water access is accelerating displacement, with hundreds of thousands of people expected to move in early 2026 in search of assistance, placing additional strain on overstretched urban centres, IDP settlements, and basic services.