Attachments
Forum participants stress the urgency of immediate preparations to reduce the impacts of prolonged dry spells and address the challenges faced by vulnerable communities, particularly those in drought-prone areas.
10 September 2024, Mogadishu, Somalia – The National Climate Co-Production, Application and Action Planning (NCCAAP) convened a forum on the DEYR 2024 Season. The forum deliberated on the critical climate forecast of below-normal rainfall, a delayed onset of rains, and the impacts of higher-than-normal temperatures in Somalia. The forum brought together climate scientists, decision-makers, and representatives from key sectors, including agriculture, water resources, disaster risk management, and humanitarian organizations, to assess the implications of these projections and plan anticipatory actions to mitigate the forecasted conditions.
The October-November-December forecast indicates a high likelihood (50%+ probability) of below-normal rainfall, driven by La Niña conditions (Map 1). Additionally, there is a 60%+ probability of a delayed onset of rains in the southern and central parts of the country. These challenges are further compounded by above-normal temperatures (Map 2), which, combined with belownormal rainfall, are expected to lead to a severe loss of soil moisture due to increased evapotranspiration.
Compounding these challenges, the forecasted above-normal temperatures (Map 2), combined with below-normal rains, are expected to lead to severe loss of soil moisture through increased evapotranspiration. This will have serious implications for crop and fodder production, particularly in regions reliant on rainfed agriculture and pastoralist activities. Without adequate moisture retention, soil conditions will worsen, directly impacting food and fodder availability for both human and livestock populations.
While it is acknowledged that there are inherent uncertainties associated with seasonal forecasting, this uncertainty should not be an excuse for inaction. Instead, the uncertainties must be met with flexibility and preparedness, ensuring that proactive steps are taken to safeguard communities and sectors at risk.
The forum underscored the importance of collaboration between regional forecasting centers (IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre and WMO Regional Specialized Centres), national hydrometeorological agencies of neighbouring countries, and global climate forecast producing centers. This collaborative approach is seen as a key factor in ensuring that seasonal forecasts are tailored to meet the needs of vulnerable populations, particularly in drought-prone regions. There is need for enhancing drought forecasting capabilities, employing tools with longer lead times, and improving the dissemination of climate information to support decision-making across multiple sectors.
Food security, agriculture, and livestock are critical concerns. Relevant ministries from both the Federal Government of Somalia and the Federal Member States are in agreement with climate experts that crop, and livestock production are at high risk due to the combined effects of water scarcity, delayed rains, and increased temperatures. There is a strong need to promote droughtresilient agricultural practices and introducing measures to protect soil moisture, such as improved irrigation systems and soil conservation techniques. These will be pivotal in sustaining agricultural productivity amid the harsh conditions.
The relevant water resource management ministries from both the Federal Government and Federal Member States agree that water sources will be under significant strain, especially in areas dependent on seasonal rivers. There is therefore need for prioritization of water conservation techniques, including optimizing irrigation systems and protecting critical water sources to meet the needs of both agriculture and households during the dry season.
Given the known sensitivity of the aviation industry, it is equally important to factor in climate information into aviation flight planning, especially in the context of severe weather risks. Emphasize should be placed on the role of aviation in disaster preparedness, enabling the rapid deployment of humanitarian aid in response to extreme weather events.
There is also need to address the long-term environmental impacts of below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures, particularly in terms of land degradation and biodiversity loss. There is need for sustainable environmental policies and climate adaptation strategies that protect ecosystems while addressing human needs.
The role of both public and private media in effective communication in disseminating early warnings and raising public awareness about climate risks is critical. Media’s collaboration with government agencies and humanitarian organizations will be crucial in ensuring that communities receive timely information that enables them to take protective action.
As we prepare for the upcoming below normal rains, both the Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SODMA) and the Federal States’ Ministries of Humanitarian and Disaster Management (MOHADM) appreciate the importance of early warning systems and proactive disaster risk management. Humanitarian organizations, including the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), reaffirm their commitment to supporting government-led efforts in responding to these climate challenges. Plans for anticipatory actions are in place, focusing on providing early warnings, strengthening drought-resistant agricultural practices, and ensuring the timely delivery of relief aid to those most affected.
The NCCAAP forum concluded with a clear mandate: to take proactive steps to mitigate the impacts of the below-normal rainfall forecast, delayed rains, and above-normal temperatures. By co-developing tailored sectoral advisories and action plans, Somalia aims to mitigate the risks posed by these climatic conditions and protect the lives, livelihoods, and assets of its most vulnerable populations. The participants reaffirmed their commitment to working together to ensure timely, evidence-based anticipatory actions are taken.
This press release is co-produced by the Federal Government’s Ministry of Energy and Water Resources(MoEWR), The Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA), Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MoAI), Ministry of Livestock Forestry and Range (MoLFR), Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MoECC), The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), World Meteorological Organization(WMO), The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and Somali Civil Aviation Authority (SCAA).
Forum photos can be accessed on this link
Contacts
Ministry of Energy and Water Resources hydrometeorology@moewr.gov.so
The Somali Disaster Management Agency drm@sodma.gov.so