No significant rainfall was modelled by ECMWF for Somalia as expected for this dry season.
Deyr yields reflect rainfall patterns and are generally high in the areas not affected by flooding. While heavy floods have damaged crops and hindered agricultural activities in the main maize areas of the Shabelle and Juba regions, above average yield can be expected in the sorghum producing areas of Bay and Bakool and for areas which have been replanted after flooding. According to FSAU, total Deyr production is 115% of the 1995/2005 average.
In general vegetation greenness is still high compared to the average situation at this time of the year.
The main areas affected by the October/November 2006 floods are visible in red in the NDVI difference images (polygons provided by SWALIM project FAO)
Natural vegetation appears particularly vigorous over Southern and central Somalia following the abundant Deyr rainfall. Also Toghdheer shows an exceptionally favourable situation for pastoral vegetation. Livestock conditions are expected to benefit from this situation, with the exception of areas hit by extreme rainfall and floods. As reported by FEWSNET, pastoralists in Juba are concerned by the closing of the border with Kenya and by an outbreak of RVF.
N.B.: Please note that to improve visualization, the scale of NDVI for the 3 dry pastoral regions of the North is bigger than in the other graphs.