Some rain was modelled by ECMWF for South/western Somalia as well as in limited areas in the North of the country.
In general vegetation greenness is still high compared to the average situation at this time of the year. The start of the next Gu season is expected for the second half of April depending on good rainfall.
The last Deyr season yields reflect rainfall patterns and were generally high in the areas not affected by flooding. While heavy floods have damaged crops and hindered agricultural activities in the main maize areas of the Shabelle and Juba regions, above average yield was observed in the sorghum producing areas of Bay and Bakool and for areas which have been replanted after flooding. According to FSAU, total Deyr production is 115% of the 1995/2005 average.
Natural vegetation appears still particularly vigorous over Southern Somalia and Toghdheer and pasture availability is expected to be generally good.
As reported by FEWSNET, pastoralists in Juba are concerned by the closing of the border with Kenya and by an outbreak of RVF.
N.B.: Please note that to improve visualization, the scale of NDVI for the 3 dry pastoral regions of the North is bigger than in the other graphs.