Attachments
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, driven by both natural and human-induced factors. While variations in solar activity and large volcanic eruptions can contribute to these shifts, human activities—primarily the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas—have been the dominant cause of climate change. The resulting release of greenhouse gases accelerates global warming, disproportionately affecting countries like Somalia, which contribute minimally to emissions yet face severe climate-induced disasters.
Somalia has been grappling with a series of climate shocks, including the El Niño floods of October–December 2023, moderate riverine floods in March–May 2024, and the emerging La Niña phenomenon. Recognizing the urgent need for effective disaster preparedness, the World Food Programme (WFP) conducted a comprehensive literature review on early action and anticipatory action. The objective was to examine how humanitarian agencies implemented the latter approaches, identify gaps and challenges, and extract key lessons to enhance future anticipatory action interventions.
The review analyzed the work of various organizations operating in Somalia, including WFP, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), the World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Save the Children, the Somali Red Crescent Society (SCRS), the BRICS Project consortium, the Somali Cash Consortium (SCC), and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).
Findings from the literature review highlighted that reactive responses to disasters are significantly more costly than anticipatory action. Implementing interventions before disasters strike reduces economic losses, safeguards livelihoods, and ultimately saves lives. Beneficiaries of anticipatory action reported better outcomes compared to those receiving aid through reactive response interventions. This underscores the effectiveness of anticipatory action in reducing humanitarian needs and mitigating the financial and social costs of disasters.
Despite its benefits, anticipatory action in Somalia faces three key challenges:
1. Weak coordination of anticipatory action work leading to duplication of efforts and inefficiencies in response.
2. Absence of a harmonized multi-hazard or hazard-specific framework, resulting in agencies designing interventions based on individual assessments rather than a unified approach.
3. Limited institutional capacity and lack of dedicated funding, which constrain the effective implementation of anticipatory action measures.