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IGAD ICPAC Summary for Decision Makers Seasonal Forecast: October to December 2020 rainfall season for Eastern Africa

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Rainfall and Temperatures

October to December is an important rainfall season for Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda, and southeastern Ethiopia. A drier than usual season is expected in most parts of the region, including Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, most of Uganda, Kenya, southern, central and north-western Somalia and southern Ethiopia. A wetter than usual season is expected in coastal area of Sudan along the Red Sea. Small chances of higher than usual rainfall over western Uganda and northern Somalia.

Rains are expected to start late (compared to the 1981-2010 average onset) over Tanzania, Burundi, eastern Kenya, southern and central Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia. On the other hand, rains are expected to start earlier than usual over southern Uganda, Rwanda, western Kenya and the area centred around the border intersections of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya.

Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most of the region with higher temperatures expected in western Uganda, central South Sudan, northeastern Sudan, parts of southern Kenya and over Tanzania’s coast. Cooler than usual temperatures could be expected over western Tanzania and over the central parts of the region.

Considering the ongoing simultaneous emergencies affecting the region, including floods, the desert locust invasion and the COVID19 pandemic, regional and national authorities are encouraged to use this seasonal forecast to adjust contingency plans.

Caution: Seasonal forecasts need to be used as indicators for the upcoming season for early planning. It is crucial to update seasonal forecasts with weekly and monthly forecasts issued by ICPAC and NMHSs.
This is due to the uncertainty inherent in seasonal forecasting.