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IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2019 and Forecasts for November 2019 (Bulletin Issue October 2019)

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  1. INTRODUCTION

This bulletin reviews the September 2019 climate conditions over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region and highlights the November 2019 rainfall and temperature forecasts together with the socio-economic impacts associated with both the observed and the forecasted climate conditions.
For referencing within this bulletin, the GHA is generally divided into three sub-sectors: The equatorial sector lying approximately betweenoN and 5 oS latitude, while the northern and southern sectors lie in the north and south of the equatorial region respectively

  1. HIGHLIGHTS

Rainfall was recorded mainly in the northern sector, and western and central parts of the equatorial sector of the GHA. In overall, most of the GHA recorded near normal or above normal rainfall, however a few areas in central and southern Somalia and also northern Ethiopia recorded much drier conditions during the month of September 2019 (Figure 2 and 3). The maximum and minimum temperatures were generally warmer than the climatological mean for most places in the equatorial and southern sector of GHA. Most of the western and central parts of the northern sector of the GHA recorded maximum and minimum temperature that was cooler than or near the climatological average. By September 2019, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), a primary index used to monitor the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) maintained a slightly positive signal (Figure 7) within the neutral range. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index indicated a positive phase (Figure 6). There is a reduced chance of a positive ENSO while the IOD is forecasted to persist in positive phase to the end of 2019.

The downscaled climate models ensemble forecast for November 2019 (Figure 8) indicates that above normal rainfall expected over Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti. Below normal rainfall expected over parts of Southwestern South Sudan and localized areas in Sudan. High monthly average temperature of 30 degrees Celsius are expected over much of South Sudan, southern and eastern parts of Sudan, parts of eastern and northwestern Kenya, and south western Somalia. Low to moderate monthly average temperature of between 12 and 22 degrees Celsius is expected in central, western, and parts of eastern Ethiopia, central and parts of western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and localized areas of Tanzania. Moderate monthly average temperature between 23 and 29 degrees Celsius is expected in the rest of the region (Figure 9)