Humanitarian Bulletin Somalia, July 2017 | Issued on 31 July 2017
Critical humanitarian needs to persist to end of 2017.
Early preparedness for a possible El Nino underway.
Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) prevalence spike in IDP settlements.
AWD/cholera cases and related deaths decline, but pockets of concern remain.
Drought-induced displacements on the increase.
More funding required to sustain humanitarian response until end of 2017.
# of people in humanitarian emergency and crisis 3.2 m
# of people in need 6.7 m
# of acutely 363,000 malnourished children under age 5
# of AWD/Cholera cases in 2017 71,600
# of people displaced internally by drought since November 2016 766,000
# of people in protracted internal displacement 1.1m
Drought conditions to continue until Deyr season
Food security is not expected to improve in some parts of Somalia through the end of 2017.
Drought conditions are deepening following poor and below normal Gu rains. The Gu rains started late April and ended early in May instead of June in most parts of the country. Preliminary results of the 2017 Post Gu Assessment by FAO-led Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) indicate that the overall cereal production across Somalia is expected to be 40 to 50 per cent below normal. This is approximately up to two months of cereal stock among poor households in the major cereal producing regions of Shabelle and Bay, according to FSNAU.
The harvest shortfall will trigger an early start of the lean season and a significant increase in cereal prices starting August 2017.
Crop production prospects are either far below average or poor in agro-pastoral livelihood zones of Bakool, Gedo, Hiraan, Lower Juba, and Middle Shabelle regions, which also experienced crop failure. Similar low cereal harvests are expected in Lower Shabelle and in the riverine livelihood zones in Gedo, Hiraan and Lower Juba regions that experienced unfavorable rainfall and limited irrigation. Much of Lower Shabelle is also affected by insecurity.
The southern pastoral livelihood zones of Gedo region are expected to deteriorate from Stressed to Crisis IPC phases between now and the end of the year. Similarly, the southern agro-pastoral livelihood zone of Gedo region and the southern rain-fed maize agro-pastoral livelihood zones of Middle and Lower Shabelle are also expected to deteriorate from Crisis to Emergency through 2017. The 2017 cow-pea harvest in central regions is expected to be significantly below average.
In Bay region, areas planted under cereal crops are considered average due to favourable rains since April that allowed for timely planting. Many agro-pastoral households in the area have however lost their livelihoods due to insecurity and protracted drought, forcing many families to move to IDP settlements in Baidoa town and Mogadishu in search of humanitarian assistance. This also contributed to the reduced cultivation and cropped area during the Gu planting season. Agriculture support by humanitarians to vulnerable groups across Baidoa and Bur-hakaba districts have contributed to increased crop production.
Substantial livestock losses of between 20 to 50 per cent have been reported in southern Somalia and as high as 60 per cent for sheep and goats in northern and central regions. Many pastoral and agro-pastoral families have become more vulnerable and are relying on humanitarian assistance. A combination of high food prices, declining labour-to-cereal terms of trade, increased competition for labour due to rural urban migration and displacement means that the current food security situation is not expected to improve in many parts of the country.
The central region is expected to remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with potential increases in the number of people in both phases. The Coastal Dee livelihood zone of central region is expected to deteriorate from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between July and December 2017. The number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in urban areas is expected to decrease slightly towards the end of the year following the Gu/ Karan harvest and peak of the forthcoming rains.
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