Horn of Africa: Humanitarian Impacts of Drought – Issue 5 (31 May 2017)
The regional consensus climate outlook for the June to September 2017 rainfall season indicates that most of Somalia, Kenya, and southern Ethiopia will remain dry. Ethiopia’s Afar region and southwestern Uganda will likely experience near normal to below normal rains. Normal to above normal rainfall is expected across central and western Ethiopia, northern Kenya and central Uganda; while northern Ethiopia, parts of northern Uganda, coastal Somalia, coastal and western Kenya will likely experience above normal rainfall and floods.
Drought has impacted on education. UNICEF reports that 79,807 children in Somalia are out of school and 175 schools in Ethiopia have closed due to drought.
In Somalia, 26,000 new drought-induced displacements occurred during the first three weeks of May, bringing the total number of displaced people to 714,000 since November 2016. Most displacements occurred in Lower Shabelle (6,160), Sanaag (4,100), Sool (3,700), Bay (3,520) and Bakool (3,250). Forty-four per cent of the IDPs are hosted in Mogadishu (154, 790 people) and Baidoa (158,800 people). Intense fighting reported on May 21 displaced over 15,000 more people in Lower Shabelle. Since January, 23,601 Somali refugees have voluntarily returned to Somalia, 2,700 of whom during the month of April.
In Ethiopia, over 843,000 people remain displaced due to drought, floods and conflict in the Gambella (18,503), Afar (51,644), Oromia (279,867) and Somali (456,801) regions.
In Kenya, over 41,000 people are displaced due to conflict, drought and floods: 16,615 in Baringo county and 24,803 in other counties.
In Somalia, cholera cases are on the rise and the outbreak is spreading. Since January, 42,721 cholera cases and 715 related deaths (CFR 1.7 per cent) have been reported in 41 districts across 14 regions – an 18 per cent increase since mid-May.
Somalia has registered 7,694 measles cases since January, more than half of which in central and southern regions. Children under five account for 65 per cent of all cases.
In Kenya, 509 cholera cases (313 confirmed) and nine deaths have been reported since January. New cases in recent weeks were reported in Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps, and in Kericho, Kiambu, Nairobi, Mombasa, Muranga and Vihiga counties. During May, 470 cases of dengue fever (275 confirmed) were reported in Mombasa (451) and Wajir (19) counties.
In Ethiopia, 33,631 AWD cases and 780 deaths (CFR 2.3 per cent) have been reported in six regions, with the Somali region accounting for more than 91 per cent of cases. As of mid-May, 1,824 suspected measles cases have been reported in the country.