Horn of Africa Drought Response Issue No. 04 (5 October 2017)
22.9 Million people affected by drought in the region
15 million People facing crisis and emergencey food insecurity - 84,575 Cases of Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD) / Cholera have been reported in 2017 – with 1,546 associated deaths
1.8 Million People in Kenya,
Somalia and Ethiopia have been displaced by drought conditions
$1,612,000 Horn of Africa Drought Response funding gap
• FEWS NET forecasts indicate below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn of Africa during the upcoming October to December 2017 Deyr season. The forecasts show an increased likelihood of La Niña between October 2017 and February 2018 which are typically associated with below-average rainfall. Should this occur, it would mark the fourth consecutive season of belowaverage rainfall for many areas of the sub-region increasing the already high levels of acute food insecurity, especially in Northern Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia. Particularly, a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists parts of the region given the extended drought, heavy livestock losses, disease outbreaks and persistent challenges with provision of life-saving humanitarian assistance.
• 15 million People in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya face acute food shortage. At present, drought and conflict have displaced 3.7 million people in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya: 2.3 million of whom are internally displaced persons (IDPs), and 1.4 million refugees. Ethiopia’s Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD) shows 8.5 million people need relief assistance while IPC figures in Kenya documents 3.4 million in need of urgent assistance. 6.2 million need humanitarian assistance in Somalia. These numbers are expected to increase before the next harvest which is due between October and November.
• With the Supreme Court of Kenya decision to have fresh presidential elections set for October 26th, 2017, it is likely that critical humanitarian assistance will continue to be affected. In Wajir the County Government is yet to resume vital water delivery to over 150 villages. The health sector is also grappling to contain a cholera outbreak that is spreading in several counties. The Government has allocated Kshs 3 billion to deal with drought which will be used within the ministry of Agriculture livestock off-take programme for areas that continue to be affected by drought. The Ministry said that the subsidy programme will end in October in terms of imports but purchase of maize will continue locally from key producing areas.
•In Ethiopia, Somali region remains worst-affected, with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) level being widespread. Ethiopia Multi agency assessment identified 8.5 million people in need of emergency food assistance during the second half of the year (August- December 2017). 1 In Somali region 1.7 million people continue to be at risk of food insecurity. 10.5 million don’t have regular access to water, and over 1.02 million have been internally displayed. More than 370,000 children under 5 are severely malnourished with a high risk of mortality and situation likely to worsen until 2018.
• Massive inter and intra zonal livestock migration continued mainly in Afder, Dollo, Korehay, Shabeles, Erer and Jarar zones; livestock from Afder Zone migrating towards riparian areas of Shabele Zone and livestock from Erer Zone migrating towards Fafan due to serious lack of pasture and browse as the dry season is reaching at its peak. Livestock migration continued to Fafan from Jarar due to improved pasture regeneration following sporadic rains received.
•In Somalia, the risk of famine persisting in areas of Somaliland, Puntland and South Central Pastoral areas which are expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity until January 2018. 25 per cent of the population (3.1 million people) are expected to be in crisis (IPC 3) or emergency (IPC 4). Food security situation remains poor, beneficiaries are still reliant on cash transfers from humanitarian agencies. Whilst, AWD/Cholera cases are reducing, with increasing vulnerability of communities and poor nutrition, intake re-occurrence of AWD outbreaks is very likely. Over 388,000 children are acutely malnourished and need critical nutrition support. A Report by Refugee International indicates that while there have been concerted efforts in providing internally displaced persons with humanitarian assistance in Somalia, the response requires improved coordination, especially at the regional level and particularly in the protection cluster to address GBV risks and threats.
• Funding shortfalls will impact the ability of agencies to continue critical assistance across the region beyond October 2016. Already, World Food Program has announced cuts in food rations by 30 percent for the 420,000 refugees in living in Dadaab and Kakuma camps in northern Kenya due to insufficient funding.(OCHA update 10 Aug)