An estimated 1.7 million Somalis are facing
either a humanitarian emergency or food and livelihood crises and are in
need of urgent assistance, according to the findings of a recently concluded
multi-agency assessment led by the United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organisation (FAO). Moreover, the vulnerability of about 400,000 people,
who have been displaced through civil unrest and food insecurity and are
living in destitute camps in the main towns (mainly in the south), has
increased. These people derive their main livelihoods from menial jobs
and social support and their numbers will likely increase.
Agropastoral communities in the Gedo,
Middle and Lower Juba and Bakool regions are the worst affected by the
prevailing drought. Two consecutive seasons of crop failure in southern
agricultural regions - the country's breadbasket -- have resulted in serious
food shortages.
Water and fodder in the grazing areas were depleted earlier than normal prompting unusual population movement into areas with permanent water sources. Livestock conditions are extremely poor especially for cattle. In the Gedo region 25-30 percent of the cattle population has died due to weakness which was exacerbated by the increased distance between water points and grazing areas. As a result, t he market value of livestock has plummeted and will likely continue to fall. In Bardere (Gedo), Salagle, Saakow, Buaale (Midde Juba) and, Afmadow (Lower Juba) prices dropped by between 30 and 40 percent and have reached the lowest levels in recent history. Even though the price of camels and goats remains normal, this does not help most households in the south whose main livestock holding is cattle.
Indicators of imminent famine have already been seen in Gedo and parts of the Juba Valley. These include the sale of productive assets like breeding animals, the culling of young calves, a high malnutrition level, the widespread death of cattle, unusual population movements, resource-based conflicts and market collapse. The population in this region is at high risk of famine unless there is an urgent intervention.
It is critical that the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia, donors, UN agencies and NGOs not only respond to the current crisis, but also prepare for the possibility that the main rains expected between April and June will be below normal. If the rains fail it would certainly result in a significant deterioration of the crisis and famine conditions in affected areas.