Somalia + 9 more

The FIFTY FIRST Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 51) Bulletin

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Near normal rainfall is expected over much of the equatorial region, with higher likelihood of suppressed rainfall in the eastern parts of the region. However, increased likelihood of wetter conditions is forecasted over parts of Tanzania, and much of Burundi, Rwanda,
Uganda, western Kenya, and southwestern Ethiopia and parts of southern Ethiopia. There is also increased likelihood of warmer than normal mean temperatures over much of the northern and eastern regions, with cooler to near normal temperatures over the western parts of GHA. Regionally downscaled ensemble forecasts indicate earlier than normal start with early withdrawal of the rains over most parts of the equatorial region.

The regional consensus climate outlook for the MAM 2019 season indicates increased likelihood of near normal rainfall over much of the equatorial region (5oS – 5oN), with higher likelihood of supressed rainfall in the eastern sectors especially over central Somalia, eastern Kenya, and much of northern segments of South Sudan and Ethiopia; Southern Sudan, southern Tanzania, Eritrea and Djibouti. Increased likelihood of wetter conditions is indicated over the bimodal regions of Tanzania, and much of Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, western Kenya, western Somalia and parts of southern and south-eastern Ethiopia. In the extreme southern Tanzania and coastal areas of Somalia, the consensus indicates supressed rainfall There is also increased likelihood of warmer than normal mean surface temperatures over much of the northern and eastern regions, while cooler to near normal temperatures are indicated over the western parts of GHA. The central parts of the region is forecasted to be cooler than normal.

Regionally downscaled ensemble forecasts indicate earlier than normal start of the rains over most parts of the equatorial region. However, there is a high chance of earlier than normal withdrawal of the season from south-eastern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, and northern Tanzania.