Attachments
HIGHLIGHTS
• In October 2024, normal to above-normal cumulative rains were received in the northern areas, as the June-September seasonal rains continued in South Sudan, southern Sudan, and western Ethiopia. By then, the October-December short rains had only just started in Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and northern Tanzania.
• The rains intensified in November, becoming wetter-than-normal in most of Kenya and the southernmost areas of Somalia, while they declined in northern areas, including central and pastoral areas of southern-southeast Ethiopia. By the end of the OctoberNovember period, central and northern Somalia, northeast Kenya, and parts of southern-southeast pastoral areas of Ethiopia had received less than 60 percent of the average seasonal rains. This led to moderate to severe drought conditions in central and northeast Somalia, as well as in parts of southern Oromiya and Somali regions in Ethiopia.
• In western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda, where normal to above-normal rains were received, localized flooding (and/or landslides) occurred, adding to the flood burden in the region. Although flooding had receded in Sudan, it remained dire in South Sudan, where 1.4 million people were affected, nearly 380,000 of whom were displaced.
• By mid-November, normal to better-than-normal vegetation resources existed in most areas, except in eastern Kenya and Somalia, where regeneration had not taken place due to insufficient moisture. The poor vegetation in these areas indicated limited livestock grazing resources and inadequate crop development in agricultural areas.
• Water resources improved in several areas compared to a month ago, providing water for both human and livestock consumption. However, in areas where optimal water replenishment has not been achieved, further improvement may be constrained by depressed rains in December. Consequently, earlier-than-normal depletion of water resources may occur during the January March 2025 dry season.
• Rainfall forecasts indicate a likelihood of depressed rains in December in eastern Kenya, Somalia, southern-southeast Ethiopia, and parts of Uganda, accompanied by warmer-than-normal land surface temperatures. This is particularly concerning in Somalia, the ASALs of Kenya, and parts of southern and southeast Ethiopia, where these vulnerabilities may negatively impact the maturation of planted crops (and hence food production), limit optimal rangeland/vegetation recovery, and hinder improvements in water resources. This could lead to potential negative impacts on livelihoods and food security.
• There is a needto strengthen preparedness measures in response to the possible impacts of a drought in 2025.