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HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE MARCH-MAY RAINFALL SEASON & JUNE-AUGUST OUTLOOK
• Initial rainfall forecasts indicated a likelihood of below-normal rainfall in the western agricultural areas, and in the eastern pastoral and agropastoral areas of the region, which would compound the poor performance experienced during the Oct-Dec 2024 season. However, the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and a weakened La Niña have resulted in mixed rainfall performance over March-April period.
• Wetter-than-normal rains have been realised over most of Kenya, parts of southern Somalia, and Karamoja while below-average in central and northern Somalia, and in the western agricultural areas (Burundi, Rwanda, western Uganda, parts of Central and Western Equatorial states of South Sudan). Somalia remains of concern because it has not fully recovered from the impacts of the previous poor season. The rainfall performance in the Belg areas of Ethiopia is mixed with the Belg cropping areas and southern Pastoral areas generally recording normal or abovenormal except in northern pastoral (Afar and northern Somali) and other localised areas with depressed rains.
• The rains have improved the soil moisture for crop development (in bimodal areas of Kenya, southern Somalia, and parts of the Belg areas of Ethiopia) and for the cropping season to start (in western Kenya, Karamoja, equatorial South Sudan). Concern remains over the performance in the western agricultural areas (Western Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi) because it might lower seasonal production. The received rains have also improved pastures and water resources for livestock in Kenya, parts of Ethiopia and Karamoja but regeneration has not optimally occurred in Somalia.
• The heavy rains have resulted in extreme climatic events, including flash flooding, storms, and landslides. In Somalia, flash floods occurred in the southwest, Puntland, and Shabelle regions, affecting about 45,000 people. Similarly, floods occurred in Kenya’s central, western, and northern regions, and in Uganda (including Kampala City, Mbale, Namisindwa, Kalangala, Rukungiri, and Bunyangabo districts), where populations were affected and properties damaged.
• In May, normal to above-normal rains are expected, except along the coastal areas of Kenya and southern Somalia. Thereafter, the rains are projected to shift northward (Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and northern South Sudan), with wetter-than-normal rains forecasted over the June–August period. The enhanced rains will support agricultural production and water recharge but also increase the risk of severe flooding in low-lying areas and along rivers and major tributaries—particularly in South Sudan and Sudan towards the end of the year, as seen in 2024.
• The VAM unit will continue monitoring rainfall performance and providing early-warning information. Country offices are advised to anticipate the most likely climate shocks in their respective regions and develop appropriate mitigation and preparedness measures.